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The EU’s Guiding Hand

Hedgeye Portfolio: Long Germany (EWG); Long British Pound (FXB); bullish on EUR-USD

 

We thought we’d flash you a couple charts of Portugal, one country alongside Greece that is failing to meet its debt and deficit reduction targets for 2010, with Portugal’s Finance Minister saying today that it’s likely its budget gap will equal 9% of GDP by year-end, well above its target of 7.3%.

 

Our call on European debt and deficits threats remains one that is duration sensitive.  We think that for the near term TRADE and intermediate term TREND there’s plenty of downside for Europe’s fiscally weaker countries, especially those “affectionately” labeled the PIIGS. We highlight the risk trade with Portugal in the charts below:  (1.) yields on the 10YR Portuguese bond are rising above those last seen at the height of concern over Europe’s sovereign crisis, which culminated in the issuance of a €750 Billion rescue package on May 9th; and (2.) CDS is breaking out to the upside to a critical inflection line of 400bps, a line we initially discuss in late ’09 and 1H10 in regards to risk parameters for Greek default.  Certainly, Portugal is now flirting with this line. 

 

We’re also quick to point out that Greece’s default scare and the associated shock to the Euro put enough fear into the European community that we’d expect the EU to remain a backstop to support the Union at all costs should sovereign default fears rear its ugly head again. Recent data also helps to substantiate that a moderate floor could be in place, as Norway’s sovereign wealth fund (the 2nd largest in the world) decided to buy an undisclosed amount of Greek, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese debt a week ago, a bet that the EU will continue to feed its children the bottle during any time of need.

 

Again, we expect the inability of countries to cut deficit and debt levels to present further downward pressure on markets, however not to the extent that Greece did.  Therefore, we’re “surprisingly” bullish on the EUR-USD, given where we were 3-6 months ago, and outright bullish on the Pound-USD. Our bullish intermediate term TREND lines for the Euro and Pound are  $1.26 and $1.52, respectively.

 

Matthew Hedrick

Analyst

 

The EU’s Guiding Hand - mh1

 

The EU’s Guiding Hand - mh2


Bear Market Macro: SP500 Levels, Refreshed...

Nothing has changed other than Heli-Ben daring investors to day trade on government-intervention at an accelerating rate. If you are more bullish than I on Bernanke, you can just call this daring investors to chase yield.

 

Our Bear Market Macro intermediate term TREND line of resistance is under assault. There isn’t a bull in the building who isn’t cheering Bernanke on.

 

I just sold our position in long term US Treasuries (TLT). I don’t know how any rational analyst can trust US government credit in perpetuity here.

 

Refreshed immediate term TRADE lines of support and resistance are now 1124 and 1149, respectively.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Bear Market Macro: SP500 Levels, Refreshed... - 1


RESTRUCTURING: THE 2010 VERSION IS ON THE WAY

Conclusion: The number of job cuts in North America is accelerating after seven months of declines.

 

We are headed into a critical time for corporate America.  As of the close last night, the S&P 500 was up 8.88% month-to-date, the best September performance since the 1930’s, as the MACRO data points are not getting any worse - for now. 

 

Despite the market rallying on improved expectations, we are seeing the number of companies announcing layoffs begin to accelerate.  So far, the number of layoff announcements in September 2010 is above the total number for all of August. 

While the absolute numbers are modest compared to what we saw in 2008 and 2009, the MACRO backdrop suggests that the number of layoffs will accelerate from here.

 

So far in September, Philip Morris, Fed Ex, Genzyme, Merck and Boeing have announces layoffs.  The interesting stand out is FedEx which announced it is laying off 1,700 people versus 1,000 in April 2009. 

 

In the 2Q earnings season, 32% of the companies in the S&P 500 missed on the revenue line, while only 17% missed on the bottom line.  With GDP declining sequentially and bonuses on the line for making “the numbers”, I fully expect to see more corporate restructuring and layoffs in the coming months. 

 

To a certain extent, the pattern of layoffs is seasonal, as management teams plan for the next fiscal year and we are headed into the budget season.  In a slowing economy and a difficult consumer environment, trying to anticipate revenue growth is very difficult.  A real-time example of this is CAG.  The company said today, “Promotional programs did not drive increased consumer purchases to the extent expected, reflecting the prolonged economic challenges consumers have faced and the difficult retail environment.” 

 

We know from the labor department that, despite 3.7% and 1.6% GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2010, the economy did not add any jobs.  With GDP growth likely to slow in 2H10, corporate cost cutting will take center stage in the coming months.  The easiest way to cut costs is to cut employees, as we have seen over the past two years.  Complicating the process in 2011 will be inflation.  Despite what Ben Bernanke says, there is real inflation in the U.S. today.  Again, just look to CAG’s results today, the price of gold, the price of foodstuffs or a number of other asset prices. 

 

Given current trends, we calculate that between 160 and 200 companies in the S&P 500 are faced with a challenged revenue environment.  The bulk of the companies that are feeling the pain are in the Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

RESTRUCTURING: THE 2010 VERSION IS ON THE WAY - job cuts 0809

 

RESTRUCTURING: THE 2010 VERSION IS ON THE WAY - job cuts


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

Heli-Ben Flies Japanese

Ivory towers of modern day US and Japanese monetary policy perceived wisdoms, Ben Bernanke salutes you. Doing more of what hasn’t worked for the last decade is hopefully going to inflate asset prices until the conflicted get paid at another lower-high for the US stock market. 

  1. No change to US monetary policy
  2. No new bond purchases
  3. No acknowledgement of sequential inflation. 

This breed of Keynesians doesn’t change when the facts do (although, tying a Fed Head record, Hoenig dissents for the 6th consecutive meeting).

 

US Treasury yields continue to hit lower-lows, looking more and more Japanese by the day.

 

This will not end well,

KM

 

Heli-Ben Flies Japanese - 1


WMS ANALYST DAY NOTES

Here are some notes from the WMS Analyst Day

 

 

General:

  • Harrah's is looking to have a facility in Vegas with all the newest products
  • Speed to market is a key advantage for WMS - makes it easier to do business with WMS.  Bluebird 1 + 2 have a 2 week lead time for delivery; xD has a 6 week lead time.
  • Their sales people cover fewer accounts which allows them to cover clients more thoroughly. Recently increased salesforce by 50%.
  • In the past, customers didn't have to justify ROI of new machines; now they do. Two weeks ago, Ho-Chunk was visiting - haven't bought machines for 2.5 yrs and just ordered machines from WMS.
  • xD took 18 months from conception to market.  They are spending a lot of time to continuously improve their supply chain. Goal is to reach 60% gross margin and 30% operating margin.  60/40 product sales vs participation - once replacement ramps - running at 30% capacity for manufacturing.  Combine that with continued product improvements.
  • xD should get to BB2 gross margins or better by 4Q2011.  xD margins were weaker at launch - multiple new suppliers and new product (not BB1 evolution) - so there is some ramp time. Beginning to see some improvement already in the Sept quarter; should continue through 4Q. Will show QoQ improvement. They shipped a decent # of units this Q.

Strategy & Development:

  • Lean Sigma: started in manufacturing and now headed into product development
  • Strategy Deployment:- focusing efforts and priorities on a critical few. 3-5 year strategic initiatives.

Supply Chain & why speed is so important:

  • Now that they are a bigger supplier, there are a lot more suppliers that will deal with them.
  • 85% of their inventory is replenished based on consumption; replenished within 2 hrs
  • They closed 3 outside warehouses because they consolidated their inventory so well.  Midwest is a hotbed of supplier activity. 65% of their suppliers are located within a 100 mile radius.
  • Inventory was 30% of revenues 5 yrs ago - now 4.5%
  • Goal is to get to $25mm of inventory balance - spent $18mm on chips for their BB2s recently - which they will work through.
  • Have a little bit of finished goods from Barcelona, in Waukegan, and some in Vegas (where they keep the product that comes back (participation) and repurposed).
  • Working on putting USB technology into the cabinets - i.e. simplifying what goes in the box.
  • 90% of their games are built out with only 10% to be customized
  • They doubled their manufacturing capacity without additional money or people; have industry leading supply times
  • Feel like they still have lots of room for improvement

Factory tour:

  • BB2 just looks slimmer. Can make 100 games per day per line. Track production goals hourly. Can build reels and videos on same lines now - 80 reels per hour. Have constant employee cross training.
  • xD not cannibalizing their other products.  Lots of the margin improvement will come from training their workers, redesigning, negotiating, working better with suppliers. xD also has a different finish.

Participation refurbishment:

  • Strip them down, clean them up and then repurpose them.  Will remove a lot of components for testing and cleaning (bill validator/cpu)

Supplies/receiving:

  • 5 yrs ago, it used to take days to get supplies from the dock to the factory - now it's 5 hours - goal is 2hrs
  • Cut inventory space needed in half
  • Everything is barcoded now
  • Takes them 2 days to do a physical inventory count

Inventory mgmt:

  • Inventory reduced from $72mm in June 05 to just $31mm last quarter
  • Scan out empty bin - and they get replenished
  • Super core : 90% complete - can be turned into video or reel.  80% of their customers take games that are pretty plain vanilla.  Margin on the custom games are even better. Only impacts lead times (so 4-5 weeks).

INSIDE THE NOTEBOOK SEPT. 21, 2010

INSIDE THE NOTEBOOK SEPT. 21, 2010 - Notebook Image Hedgeye

 

 

 

Another day, another grind of new DATA and PRICES. Here are the bullish and bearish bullets in my notebook from the last 48 hours:
 
BULLISH
1.      SP500 remains immediate term bullish with TRADE line support = 1124

2.      All 9 sectors in our SP500 Sector Risk Mgt model remain bullish from an immediate term TRADE perspective

3.      SP500 return from the AUG26 low = +9.1%; that 1047 low was a higher-low than the YTD closing low of 1022

4.      Thailand Exports accelerated sequentially (AUG vs JUL) from 20.6% to 23.9%

5.      Taiwan Exports accelerated sequentially (AUG vs JUL) from 18.2% to 23.3%

6.      India’s stock market continues to make higher-highs post last week’s rate hike (5th of 2010, citing inflation pressures)

7.      Chinese Yuan continues to rally early this week as Malaysia was a noteworthy buyer of Yuan denominated bonds for reserves

8.      Chinese Bank Regulation looks tougher than Basel3; reducing one of the larger global macro risks (China having a US style credit blowup)

9.      RAB’s Glen Stevens considering a rate hike rather than pandering to the Bernanke/Japan QE turbo prop helicopters

10.  European equities continue to A) diverge from a performance standpoint and B) see Germany win and Greece lose performance

11.  FTSE and DAX remain bullish TRADE and TREND with both outperforming SP500 YTD

12.  Brazil and Canada remain bullish TRADE and TREND from an equity market perspective

13.  Commodities remain on a tear with the CRB Index +9.8% since beginning of July; seeing very high inverse correlation to US Dollar now

14.  Gold prices hit higher-all-time-highs that we sold into yesterday but we’ll buy back on a pullback to 1261 (maybe)

15.  Euro and British Pound continue to flash bullish TRADE and TREND as the Yen and US Dollar wallow in the Fiat Republic strategies

 


BEARISH
1.      SP500 remains bearish from an intermediate term TREND perspective; our Bear Market Macro line of resistance remains 1144

2.      Our immediate term SP500 RISK/REWARD model is flashing a 10:1 downside (RISK) vs upside (REWARD) signal = rare

3.      Volatility (VIX) is oversold again in the 21-22 range; the inverse relationship b/t VIX and SPY is critical to acknowledge

4.      Hearing very negative Q3 hedge fund performance numbers (real as opposed to rumor); perpetuating the September squeeze

5.      Obama praising his economic team on the TV Game Show thing that CNBC was embarrassing for America

6.      Chinese stocks are down for 4 of the last 5 days; bearish immediate term TRADE and threatening a TREND line breakdown of 2578 on the SSEC

7.      Japanese Yen has had no legitimate bid since intervention day; re-assuring us that there is legitimate TAIL risk mounting that Japan implodes

8.      China/Japan political relations broke down this week on the Chinese fisherman issue = rising tensions that we don’t see priced into oil

9.      Greek equities continue to get hammered on both an absolute and relative basis (-32% YTD) despite Greek politicians doing their road-shows

10.  Sweden re-elects Reinfeldt as PM but he takes a minority government as anti-immigration votes (Swedish Democrats) build momentum

11.  Portugal’s budget gap for AUG was worse than expected  - big miss on the revenue lines (like Greece) as they focus on the spending line

12.  Oil prices have broken their intermediate term TREND line of $76.12 again = bearish US demand signal

13.  Natural gas prices are broken across all 3 of our core risk management durations (TRADE, TREND and TAIL) = bearish US demand signal

14.  Copper prices continue to make lower-highs, much like the SP500, versus April levels

15.  2yr US Treasury yields continue to flag bearish from an immediate term TRADE perspective = bearish US demand signal

16.  Yield Spread (10s minus 2s) has compressed small for the week-to-date, less bullish than last week’s expanding spread was for Financials

17.  US Dollar continues to look God awful; bearish TRADE, TREND and TAIL (down now for the 14th week out of the last 17)

18.  Inflation readings across all of our Hedgeye models are signaling a sequential rise in September versus August

19.  IL’s pension fund “time bomb” potential finally broke as news from Bloomberg this week

20.  Japan’s Pension Fund (largest on the planet) is considering investing in emerging markets as they chase yield

21.  Russia and Costa Rica issuing sovereign debt now as the list of those piling debt upon debt upon debt grows like bark on a bonfire

 
Altogether, I started leaning more bearish than bullish in the last 24 hours. I expressed this by taking up the CASH position in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model up from 46% at Friday’s close to 61% this morning. I’ve also gone from net long to net short (longs vs shorts) in the Hedgeye Portfolio which has 10 LONGS and 11 SHORTS as of 11AM EST.
 
KM


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.28%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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