CHART OF THE DAY: ISM Prices Paid

02/02/21 07:40AM EST

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

What’s really going on in Global Macro this morning? Both Inflation and Earnings continue to accelerate:

A) ISM Prices Paid ramped to 82.1 in JAN vs. 77.6 in DEC = new Cycle High
B) Commodities (CRB Index) inflated to a new #Quad2 Cycle High of 177 yesterday
C) Earnings (189 of 500 SPX Companies) have reported an aggregate EPS #acceleration to +3.9% y/y

To put that in context, using the lows of The Cycle (which are now the #Quad2 base effects, or comparisons):

A) ISM Prices Paid bottomed at 35.3 in APRIL Of 2020 (i.e. during #Quad4)
B) Commodities (CRB Index) bottomed, in … drumroll… APRIL of 2020 at 106
C) US Corporate Profits bottomed at -19.2% y/y in Q2 of 2020 (which includes the month of APRIL)

CHART OF THE DAY: ISM Prices Paid - ISM Manufacturing PMI Prices Paid

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