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Initial Claims

Initial claims fell 3k last week to 450k (falling 1k net of the revision). Rolling claims came in at 465k, a decline of 13.5k over the previous week. Reported claims are now at the low end of the YTD range of 450-470k that the series has occupied for all of 2010. While the series is improving in the last few weeks, the reality is that claims still need to be 50-75k lower than they are now before unemployment will start to improve.

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN A HAIR - 1

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN A HAIR - 2

In the table below, we chart US equity correlations with Initial Claims, the Dollar Index, and US 10Y Treasury yields on a weekly basis going back 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years.

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN A HAIR - 3

September will be the final month for meaningful census drag on employment in the economy.

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN A HAIR - census chart

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Allison Kaptur