THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 16, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or -1.61% downside to 1107 and 0.53% upside to 1131.  Equity futures are trading below fair after markets this morning. Yesterday, U.S. equities succeeded in reversing earlier declines yesterday to close up on the day as investors shrugged off a disappointing NY Empire State manufacturing reading.

Today's macro releases include Initial Jobless Claims and September Philadelphia Fed Index.

  • AAR (AIR) reported 1Q EPS 35c vs estimated 30c
  • Abbott Labs (ABT) got a split decision from a U.S. panel on whether to recommend its diet pill Meridia to stay on market.
  • Amerigroup (AGP) boosted its stock repurchase program by $200m
  • Clarcor (CLC) boosted the low end of its 2010 EPS forecast
  • Dress Barn (DBRN) sees 2011 adjusted EPS $2.05-$2.15 vs estimate $2.09
  • Fifth Third (FITB) said it will acquire National Processing Co.
  • GameStop (GME) said it will buy back $500m in stock, debt
  • NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) plans to sell $41.2m shares

PERFORMANCE

  • One day performance: Dow +0.44%, S&P +0.35%, Nasdaq +0.50%, Russell +0.50%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +5.56%, S&P +7.2%, Nasdaq +8.84%, Russell +8.35%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +8.16%, S&P +9.13%, Nasdaq +9.09%, Russell +7.03%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +1.38%, S&P +0.87%, Nasdaq +1.4%, Russell +4.31%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +174 (+400)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 901.21 (-2.44%)  
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Mixed performance - 5 sectors rose and 3 declined - the RECOVERY trade under-performed again yesterday.
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Pall +6.26%, Novell +5.92% and Mckession +5.39%/AK Steel -5.78%, Time Warner -4.97% and Micron -4.54%
  • VIX: 21.56 +2.50% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (+1.94%)           
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.53 from 1.58 -3.33%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 14.80 0.203 (1.391%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.15% unchanged
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.24 from 2.18

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 279.05 -0.93%
  • Oil: 76.02 -1.01% 
  • COPPER: 346.65 -0.06%
  • GOLD: 1,267 -0.20%

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3001 -0.07%
  • DOLLAR: 81.491 +0.51%

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

Europe

  • Markets: FTSE 100: (0.12%); DAX +0.07%; CAC 40 (0.12%)
  • Major bourses remain locked into a narrow trading range with investors largely sidelined while economic indicators continue to paint an inconclusive picture on the state of the global economy.
  • Gains in Oil & Gas and Industrial Goods sectors have been offset by declines in Basic Materials, Autos Travel and Telecoms.
  • Volumes remain below seasonal average
  • Greek officials have ruled out the possibility of default, according to the FT
  • Spain sells €1.28B 30-yr Bond at average yield of 5.077% vs previous 5.908% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.1 vs previous auction 2.44 last and €2.72B 10-yr Bond at average yield 4.144% vs previous 4.86% with a bid-to-cover ratio 2.3 vs previous 1.88
  • UK Aug Retail Sales (0.5%) m/m vs cons +0.3%

Asia

  • Markets: Nikkei (0.07%); Shanghai Composite (1.89%)
  • Regional markets closed mostly lower in the wake of yesterday’s market intervention to weaken the yen. Japan rose in the morning, but gave up the gains on afternoon declines in commodity stocks. China fell again amid concerns tighter bank capital requirements may subdue credit growth.
  • Australia dropped as miners declined on stalled metal prices
  • Japan July tertiary industry activity index +1.6% m/m to 98.9. 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER