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    MARKET EDGES

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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 15, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.26% (1,107) downside and 0.62% (1,128) upside.  Equity futures are trading lower flat-to-fair value as recent momentum appears to have run out of steam.  Today's macro highlight includes NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September and August Industrial Production.  Production in the U.S. is estimated to have slowed in August, increasing 0.2% after a 1% in July as automakers scaled back following a surge in output last month.

  • Cohen (COHN) plans to acquire privately held investment firm JVB Financial Holdings LLC for $16.6m in cash and stock
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) was sued by China Development Industrial Bank for fraud to recover losses from an investment tied to residential mortgage-backed securities
  • Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) said a Phase 2 trial of a treatment for major depressive disorder showed no ease of symptoms in patients.
  • NextEra Energy (NEE) said it plans to sell $350m equity units at $50-each.
  • Sonic (SONC) said 4Q same-store system sales fell 6.4%
  • Steel Dynamics (STLD) forecast 3Q EPS 5c-10c vs est. 21c

PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.17%), S&P (0.07%), Nasdaq +0.18%, Russell 2000 (0.47%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow +5.11%, S&P +6.84%, Nasdaq +8.31%, Russell +7.83%;
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +7.70%, S&P +8.77%, Nasdaq +8.56%, Russell +6.52%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +0.94%, S&P +0.54%, Nasdaq +0.91%, Russell +7.44%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -226 (-1812)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 923.76 (-1.22%)  
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Mixed performance - 4 sectors rose and 5 declined - the RECOVERY trade under-performed yesterday.
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: JC Penney +7.43%, Best Buy +6.00% and Corning +4.76%/Cliffs Natural -6.47%, SLM Corp -4.96% and EK -3.99%
  • VIX: 21.56 +1.65% - First up day in the last 4 - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-0.55%)         
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.58 from 0.92 +72%.26

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 15.31 -0.391 (-2.489%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .15% unchanged
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.18 from 2.21

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 280.13 +0.93%
  • Oil: 76.80 -0.51% 
  • COPPER: 346.85 -0.30%
  • GOLD: 1,269 +1.83% - Will 2010 make it 10 years of annual gains?

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3010 +1.16% - a two day 2.60% surge in the Euro
  • DOLLAR: 81.080 -1.02% - a two day 1.97% decline in the Buck

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

Europe

  • Markets: FTSE 100: -0.24%; DAX -0.36%; CAC 40 -0.45%
  • Markets are lower ahead of today's macro releases.
  • Strength in Auto, Retail and Insurance names offset by slight weakness across Oil & Gas, Travel and Technology sectors.
  • Astrazeneca fell after the FDA extended its review of the New Drug Application for its anti blood clotting drug ticagrelor
  • UK Jul ILO unemployment rate 7.8% vs cons 7.8%, Jobless claims +2.3K vs cons (3.0K)
  • Eurozone Aug CPI 1.6% y/y vs cons +1.6%

Asia

  • Markets: Nikkei +2.34%; Shanghai Composite (1.34%)
  • Most Asian markets ended mixed.
  • Japan reversed early losses when the Ministry of Finance confirmed that it intervened in the foreign exchange market after the dollar fell below ¥83.
  • China closed weaker following press reports suggesting that China may introduce new measures to cool the property market. Mining stocks across the region were boosted by a record gold price.
  • China's banking regulator may require the nation's "systemically important" banks to boost their capital adequacy ratios to as high as 15 percent by 2012.
Howard Penney
Managing Director