It’s not just about getting the quad and the move right – it's about getting the pace of the move right.
If the pace of the move wasn’t implying what the next pace of the move is going to be, then Gold wouldn’t be down -0.8% and going lower. We’ll have longer-term discussions about Gold, but what are you doing with it right now?
The goal is to make money NOW.
This is a 12% drawdown from where the chart starts. Now no one else calls it a full cycle drawdown because no one calls themselves a full cycle investor, unless they’re agreeing to agree that I made that up.
A full cycle drawdown means that Gold is down from the peak of the cycle, during Quad 3 in Q3 of 2020 (which isn't unlike the Quad 3 we saw in the first three quarters of 2011). We’re still short Gold Miners (GDX) too, with the immediate-term downside on Gold itself down towards $1,803 (the low end of the risk range).
These are empirical facts – they trump (pardon the pun) your belief systems.