INSIDE THE HEDGEYE NOTEBOOK: Sept. 14, 2010

INSIDE THE HEDGEYE NOTEBOOK: Sept. 14, 2010 - Notebook Image Hedgeye

 

 

 

Feedback on the last grind was good. Here it is again – global macro/risk management PRICE and DATA points in my notebook from the last 48 hours:
 
Bullish:
1.      Chinese economic data for august = re-acceleration in growth (IP and Retail Sales) + expansion of money supply to +19.2% (AUG) vs +17.6% (JUL)

2.      Chinese equities have been up for 3 straight days, confirming bullish TRADE and TREND lines of support in the Shanghai Composite

3.      Indian Equities powered to higher-highs again last night = bullish TRADE and TREND confirming the same in Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore

4.      European equities continue to flash more bullish than US Equities as does the Euro vs the US Dollar

5.      Petrodollar stock markets (Russia, Norway, UAE, etc.) are now trading as bullish from a TREND perspective as the price of oil is

6.      Oil is holding its TREND line breakout from last week with TREND line support = $75.77/barrel

7.      Gold continues to flash higher-lows and higher highs; there isn’t a bullish line of price momentum that’s been challenged as suport

8.      US Budget Deficit spending line dropped 100bps sequentially (month over month) to +9.4% y/y growth (AUG) vs +10.4% in July.

9.      Brazil buying US Dollars to the tune of +$18.6B (net) YTD vs $7.3B in all of last year

10.  China introducing a CDS market by year end with allegedly tight control parameters

11.  Turkey’s PM Erdogan wins an important vote (58% to 42%) giving him increasing power over secular courts and army

12.  Basel3 timing pushes out the blowup case for banks out on the duration curve (9 years is to comply is a long time)

13.  Boehner falls in line with Obama’s middle class tax cut idea; give and takes = more, not less, tax cutting

14.  Frank Quattrone is back (selling Go-Daddy) and reminding us that bankers are back from holidays doing M&A

15.  SP500 continues to flash immediate term TRADE bullish (support = 1107) with upside to its intermediate term TREND range (1129-1144)

 


Bearish
1.      Chinese inflation (CPI) pushed higher sequentially (month over month) to +3.5% (AUG) vs +3.3% (JUL) and September looks higher to me too

2.      Japanese Equities (Nikkei225) continue to flash very negative divergences vs both rest of Asia and the Fiat Republic nations

3.      UK CPI (AUG) sticky at +3.1% y/y vs the same in July

4.      German ZEW (confidence) drops to a 19 month low (-4 vs +14 last month)

5.      Greek equities and bond yields continue to flash the nasty; a breakdown for the Athex Index below 1575 will be very bearish for worlds worst mkt YTD

6.      US Treasury yields are dancing on coals on the short end of the curve with immediate term TRADE line of support for 2s at 0.52%

7.      Back to a compression day today in Treasury Yield Spread (bearish leading indicator) with yield spread contracting 8bps day over day

8.      US Dollar continues to act like the dog of the Fiat Republic – down over 1% yesterday and down 13 of the last 16 weeks

 
In summary, this chaos theorist still sees more bullish than bearish PRICE and DATA in the immediate term. That’s why the Hedgeye has more longs than shorts (14 longs, 7 shorts) as of this morning’s open. That can, and will, change as PRICE and DATA does.
 
KM
 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more