• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Feedback on the last grind was good. Here it is again – global macro/risk management PRICE and DATA points in my notebook from the last 48 hours:

Bullish:

1.       Chinese economic data for august = re-acceleration in growth (IP and Retail Sales) + expansion of money supply to +19.2% (AUG) vs +17.6% (JUL)

2.       Chinese equities have been up for 3 straight days, confirming bullish TRADE and TREND lines of support in the Shanghai Composite

3.       Indian Equities powered to higher-highs again last night = bullish TRADE and TREND confirming the same in Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore

4.       European equities continue to flash more bullish than US Equities as does the Euro vs the US Dollar

5.       Petrodollar stock markets (Russia, Norway, UAE, etc.) are now trading as bullish from a TREND perspective as the price of oil is

6.       Oil is holding its TREND line breakout from last week with TREND line support = $75.77/barrel

7.       Gold continues to flash higher-lows and higher highs; there isn’t a bullish line of price momentum that’s been challenged as suport

8.       US Budget Deficit spending line dropped 100bps sequentially (month over month) to +9.4% y/y growth (AUG) vs +10.4% in July.

9.       Brazil buying US Dollars to the tune of +$18.6B (net) YTD vs $7.3B in all of last year

10.   China introducing a CDS market by year end with allegedly tight control parameters

11.   Turkey’s PM Erdogan wins an important vote (58% to 42%) giving him increasing power over secular courts and army

12.   Basel3 timing pushes out the blowup case for banks out on the duration curve (9 years is to comply is a long time)

13.   Boehner falls in line with Obama’s middle class tax cut idea; give and takes = more, not less, tax cutting

14.   Frank Quattrone is back (selling Go-Daddy) and reminding us that bankers are back from holidays doing M&A

15.   SP500 continues to flash immediate term TRADE bullish (support = 1107) with upside to its intermediate term TREND range (1129-1144)

Bearish

1.       Chinese inflation (CPI) pushed higher sequentially (month over month) to +3.5% (AUG) vs +3.3% (JUL) and September looks higher to me too

2.       Japanese Equities (Nikkei225) continue to flash very negative divergences vs both rest of Asia and the Fiat Republic nations

3.       UK CPI (AUG) sticky at +3.1% y/y vs the same in July

4.       German ZEW (confidence) drops to a 19 month low (-4 vs +14 last month)

5.       Greek equities and bond yields continue to flash the nasty; a breakdown for the Athex Index below 1575 will be very bearish for worlds worst mkt YTD

6.       US Treasury yields are dancing on coals on the short end of the curve with immediate term TRADE line of support for 2s at 0.52%

7.       Back to a compression day today in Treasury Yield Spread (bearish leading indicator) with yield spread contracting 8bps day over day

8.       US Dollar continues to act like the dog of the Fiat Republic – down over 1% yesterday and down 13 of the last 16 weeks

In summary, this chaos theorist still sees more bullish than bearish PRICE and DATA in the immediate term. That’s why the Hedgeye has more longs than shorts (14 longs, 7 shorts) as of this morning’s open. That can, and will, change as PRICE and DATA does.

KM

Keith R. McCullough

Chief Executive Officer

The Grind: What's In My Notebook - The Grind