In global currency markets, it’s a big Dollar up day, which is catalyzing a lot of Quad 4 flavoring in the markets this morning.
AGAIN, this is not Quad 4 for some extended period of time.
Those of you who are new tend to freak out on days like this, which is why you tune in every day. This is why we wake up at 4-something AM to chop the wood for you, so that we can appease those emotions. It’s okay to freak out, we're all human. But the reality is, once you chop the wood on all the data; refresh all the models, backcheck and forecheck the process, we get to a more calm state where we can react slowly and dispassionately to these signals.
One thing that's changing this morning (on a short-term basis) is the Dollar up +0.5%. This is catalyzing the crash in Bitcoin, which is down -18% this morning. The LatAm currency index is down -1.2%, and Gold is down -0.7%, continuing on Friday's epic decline. The Dollar is overbought this morning, so there's somewhat of a buying opportunity in a lot of other currencies.
Last week was a raging global Quad 2 move; there’s no if's, and's, or but's about it. If you missed it, you missed it. We don’t think Quad 2 is done being fully priced in yet, we aren’t going to be deterministic about that, but our forecast has Quad 2 extending into the second quarter of this year.
The reality is we aren’t at the end of the movie yet.