U.S. August Budget . . . Marginal Improvement

Conclusion: The August U.S. budget numbers released earlier today showed marginal improvement versus July.


We continue to remain alarmed about the U.S. budget deficit as the U.S. government printed its record 23rd straight monthly budget deficit.  That said, while we aren’t ready to reduce our estimate for the U.S. government deficit, the August results did show marginal improvement versus July, specifically on the expense side. 


Normalizing for a 1-time FDIC payment, outlays in the year-to-date, excluding TARP, payments to GSEs, and interest payments, were up 9.4% for the first eleven months of the government’s fiscal year.  This is an improvement from the July results that showed outlays, on an apples-to-apples basis, up 10.4% for the first 10-months.  Expenses are outlined directly in the chart below and, once again, all line items are up on a year-over-year basis, though the sequential decline in expenses from July to August is noteworthy.


U.S. August Budget . . . Marginal Improvement - 1


On the revenue side, government revenues in the year-to-date are up about 1.5% for the first eleven months of the fiscal year.  While this is a positive, if we normalize this for revenue from the Federal Reserve, Federal revenue actually declined about 0.1% year-over-year.  In the statement today, the Treasury Department explained the increase in revenue from the Federal Reserve by stating the following:


“The larger remittances stemmed from higher profits earned by the Federal Reserve, which primarily reflect the central bank’s much larger portfolio and its shift to riskier and thus higher-yielding investments in support of the housing market and the broader economy.”


We’re not sure that the Fed having a riskier portfolio is a long term trend of income we would want to bet on.


In aggregate, revenue is up small on a year-over-year basis and outlays are up almost double digits, which is quite negative as it relates to the fiscal future of the United States.  But on the margin August was an improvement from July . . . if only marginal.


Daryl G. Jones

Managing Director

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more