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IL REBID A SETBACK FOR SLOT SUPPLIERS

Illinois Gaming Board announced it will be rebidding the central system contract which will likely delay the rollout.

 

 

On August 12th, Scientific Games (SGMS) was awarded the contract to develop and run the central system for the video gaming network in that state.  The rollout of games was expected to begin sometime in Q1 of calendar 2011 and in earnest in 2Q2011.  Unfortunately, the rebid of the central system will likely delay the timing of initial shipments by at least a quarter.  Thus, there is a high probability that IL won't impact fiscal 2011 for BYI and WMS - both have June fiscal year ends - and maybe not even IGT's 2011 (September).  

 

The rebid should only affect the timing but not the opportunity.  We still expect at least 25,000 machines to be shipped into Illiniois and if Chicago signs up then up to 50,000, making Illiniois potentially the largest video game network in the country.  However, those looking for fiscal 2011 contribution for the big three suppliers may be disappointed. 

 

IGT has not yet provided fiscal 2011 guidance and the WMS and BYI FY2011 guidance contains only a very modest amount of revenues from Illinois given the uncertainty - timing and size and how many games will be straight sale versus lease has always been uncertain.  For the industry we had projected 1,500 and 2,500 in slot shipments to Illinois in calendar Q1 and Q2, respectively.  We don't anticipate any change to our fiscal 2011 EP estimate for WMS and only slight downside to BYI and IGT.


Breaking Down Muni Bonds

Conclusion: We firmly disagree with the relative “safety” of muni bonds, as current yields are at a disconnect with the underlying negative fundamentals that will begin to reveal themselves over the next 2-4 quarters.

 

Municipal bond yields increased 6bps wk/wk last week according to the latest Bond Buyer 20 General Obligation Bond Index. This marks the first weekly gain since a 1bps increase in the week ending July 15th. Much of the recent strength in Muni bonds has been attributed to the mixed-to-negative U.S. economic data out of late July and August, which caused some funds to chase yield via the relative “safety” of muni bonds. More recently, economic data (including jobless claims and consumer confidence) has been positive on the margin, which has stewarded investor confidence back into the equity market and away from muni bonds.

 

 Breaking Down Muni Bonds - 1

 

To be frank, we beg to differ regarding the perceived “safety” of these investments, as credit risks in municipalities and States across the country look to build as a result of slowing GDP growth, decelerating consumer spending and declining housing prices. Take Harrisburg, PA, for example, which intends to default on a $3.29 million bond payment this week. To help close the city’s $4.5 million budget gap this year, Mayor Linda Thompson drafted emergency measures including closing a fire station, increasing parking fees 67%, selling real estate tax liens and cutting $155k in personal expenses.

 

We don’t think the pending default or the aggressive austerity measures out of Harrisburg, PA will be a one-off event when it’s all said and done over the next 6-12 months. In the YTD, muni bond defaults have totaled only $1.7 billion, down from $6.9 billion in 2009. That number is likely to go up in 2011 based on the following negative fundamentals:

 

Current Setup:

We’ve been vocal throughout the year highlighting the headwinds facing State and local governments over the next 12-24 months. States, which are facing a collective budget gap of roughly ~$140 billion in fiscal 2011, saw their 2Q revenue from sales, personal income and corporate income taxes trail original projections in all but four states. This is likely the reason that one-third of state spending in 2010 came from federal government American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 funds.

 

Outlook:

With the federal government under increasing pressure to reign in the deficit, where will the money come from in fiscal 2011? States have already spent 89% of their ARRA funding, so that leaves little federal reprieve to fill the budget gap. The latest National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) Fiscal Survey of State Budgets suggests states are baking in a 4% increase in tax collections in fiscal 2010. Keep in mind that housing, consumer spending, and personal incomes are the key drivers of roughly 87% of State and local government tax receipts (see image below). We think an increase of any magnitude is unlikely given the setup for employment, consumer spending and housing over the next year: 

  • Housing: As part of our Housing Headwinds Q3 Macro Theme based on Josh Steiner’s proprietary models, we expect housing prices to decline 15-30% over the next 18 months, absent major government intervention. What is really frightening to municipalities across the country, however, is that their appraisals operate on a 2-3 year lag with market prices. That means they are currently taxing properties roughly based on 2H07 market prices. Ouch.
  • Employment: A key tenet of our American Austerity Q3 Macro Theme is that based on burgeoning federal deficits, U.S. public debt will grow to a level that structurally impedes growth going forward. Our 1.7% 2011 GDP growth estimate is 80bps below consensus and is subject to further downward revision. This will keep a floor under the unemployment rate, as pro-cyclical business investment stalls absent real growth opportunities.
  • Consumer Spending: As of today, it appears the Bush tax cuts will be extended for all but those with incomes greater than $250k. A higher effective tax rate for the wealthy will have a substantial negative impact on consumer spending, as the top 5% of earners in America account for roughly 40% of consumer spending. Furthermore, the wealth effect associated with home ownership will erode on the margin should we prove right on housing prices in the coming quarters.  

 Breaking Down Muni Bonds - 2

 

Breaking Down Muni Bonds - Property Tax Case Shiller

 

One ray of sunlight for municipal issuers has been investor appetite for Build America Bonds, of which interest payments are subsidized by the government (35%). These bonds have become the fastest-growing part of the $2.8 trillion municipal market, with total issuance of ~$130 billion since inception, according to Bloomberg data. The program is set to expire this year and is a near certainty that it will not be extended, based on current legislative gridlock and the likelihood that the GOP wins 7-8 seats in the Senate. It remains to be seen whether or not investor demand will naturally flow back to general obligation muni bonds once BABs are removed from the table. Even if it does, it is likely to be at higher yields than are currently in the market – given the negative fundamental outlook for many municipalities across the country and the prospect for much greater tax-exempt bond supply in 2011 (YTD issuance down ~20% Y/Y).

 

All told, we firmly disagree with the relative “safety” of muni bonds, as we feel current yields are out of touch with the underlying fundamentals, which will begin to reveal themselves over the next 2-4 quarters. The one positive we see is a marginal increase investor demand for tax exempt securities stemming from the Bush tax cuts likely not being extended to the wealthy. Even then, will that be enough to keep muni bond yields from backing up?

 

As always, time, data, and price will tell.

 

Darius Dale

Analyst

 

Breaking Down Muni Bonds - 4


WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: US STABILIZES WHILE EU DETERIORATES

This week's Financials Risk Monitor is evenly split, with four metrics worsening week over week and four improving.  European risk metrics (Greek bond spreads and European financials CDS) continue to flash warnings signs, while U.S. metrics are mostly flat to better.  The Markit measure of municipal bond risk also showed increasing risk, as a potential default by Harrisburg, PA, looms this week.  

 

Our risk monitor looks at the following metrics weekly:

1. CDS for all available US Financials (29 companies)

2. CDS for large European Financials (39 companies)

3. High Yield

4. Leveraged Loans

5. TED Spread

6. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index

7. Greek Bond Spreads

8. Markit MCDX

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: US STABILIZES WHILE EU DETERIORATES - RM summary

 

1. US Financials CDS Monitor – Swaps were positive across the board last week.  Swaps tightened for all of the 29 reference entities.    Conclusion: Positive.

 

Tightened the least vs last week: C, PGR, MBI

Tightened the most vs last week: JPM, LNC, HIG

Widened the most vs last month: SLM, AGO, MMC

Tightened the most vs last month: JPM, GS, UNM

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: US STABILIZES WHILE EU DETERIORATES - RM US CDS

 

2. European Financials CDS Monitor – In Europe, CDS was mixed.  Swaps tightened for 11 of the 39 reference entities and widened for 28.   Conclusion: Negative.

 

Widened the most vs last week:  Banco Bilbao, DnB NOR, Credit Suisse

Tightened the most vs last week: Sberbank,  Bakinter S.A., Banco Pastor

Widened the most vs last month: Bank of Ireland, DnB NOR, KBC Group N.V.

Tightened the most vs last month: Deutsche Bank, Alpha Bank, HSBC

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: US STABILIZES WHILE EU DETERIORATES - RM euro cds

 

3. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates fell 13 bps last week. Conclusion: Positive.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: US STABILIZES WHILE EU DETERIORATES - RM high yield

 

4. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The leveraged loan index rose 6 points last week.  Conclusion: Positive.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: US STABILIZES WHILE EU DETERIORATES - RM lev loan

 

5. TED Spread Monitor – Last week the TED spread fell slightly, coming down by less than one basis point. Conclusion: Positive.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: US STABILIZES WHILE EU DETERIORATES - RM ted spread

 

6. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – Last week, the index fell just under 1 point, closing at 13.53. Conclusion: Negative.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: US STABILIZES WHILE EU DETERIORATES - RM JOC

 

7. Greek Bond Yields Monitor – We chart the 10-year yield on Greek bonds.  Last week yields rose 41 bps, ending the week at 1173 bps versus 1132 bps the prior week.  Conclusion: Negative.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: US STABILIZES WHILE EU DETERIORATES - RM greek bond yields

 

8. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps.  We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments.  Markit publishes index values daily on four 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. Our index is the average of their four indices.  Spreads rose last week, closing at 227 versus 218 the prior week.  Conclusion: Negative.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: US STABILIZES WHILE EU DETERIORATES - RM markit

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur


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THE M3: PRICE WARS, MACAU HANDOUTS UP, +20% GOLDEN WEEK TOURISM.

The Macau Metro Monitor, September 13th 2010

 

HERE COMES ANOTHER ONE Intelligence Macau

According to IM, another price war is brewing in Macau.  With MGM Macau on the IPO path and Melco-Crown wanting to prove the brass of its management reshuffle, both companies need to get their revenues up, and the easiest way to do that is to spend heavily on marketing and rebates.  IM believes that MGM will see another MoM increase in September in revenues as they add more junket play through aggressive revenue-share deals and front money handouts, while growing Mass play through free buffets and lucky draws. Crown also seems to be driving play levels through enhanced credit offerings to its junkets as well as aggressive revenue share deals. The question is how will WYNN and LVS react.

 

TOTAL GOVERNMENT CASH HANDOUT THIS YEAR UP TO MOP$3.3bn Macau Daily News

Total government cash handouts to local Macau residents are up $3.3BN or up to MOP$6,000 per person.

 

VISITORS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 20% IN GOLDEN WEEK Macau Daily News

According to the director of the Chinese tourism research institute, visitation to Macau expected to increase 20% during Golden Week


China Is What It Is

“A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be.”

-Albert Einstein

 

Upholding the principle of that Einstein quote has to be one of the most challenging aspects of this risk management game. Most investors have a confirmation bias that guides their decision making. Over the years I’ve started using blunt mathematical instruments to attempt to impair mine.

 

Being bearish on US Equities since April 16th was the right call. Starting to cover our short positions on August 24th (covered SPY, IWM, XLY, etc. that day) and going long Chinese equities (bought CAF) on August 25th were good calls. Staying perpetually bearish on everything US or China is rarely a good idea.

 

One could argue that I made a wrong call selling our US Equity exposure too early this month (we moved to a 6% position in our Asset Allocation model in late August, buying Utilities and Pharmaceuticals). I’d have no argument in response. This is what we call the score. It doesn’t lie.

 

The score coming out of Washington last night was finally good. The Washington Redskins beat the Dallas Cowboys 13-7 and China re-accelerated their leadership in global economic growth. If you didn’t know why oil, US Equities, and US Treasury yields broke out above critical lines of resistance late last week, now you know…

 

Here’s a Chinese weekend data check: 

  1. China’s Industrial Production growth re-accelerated sequentially (month-over-month) to +13.9% y/y in August versus +13.4% in July.
  2. China’s Retail Sales growth re-accelerated sequentially (month-over-month) to +18.4% y/y in August versus +17.9% in July.
  3. China’s Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) continued to accelerate, climbing to +3.5% y/y in August versus +3.3% in July. 

Now this isn’t all of the Chinese data and, like it is in America, I’m certain that part of it is made-up… but it’s certainly better than Made-off type data and whenever our professional politicians attempt to chastise China or its data, they should seriously think about that.

 

The #1 reason why we are long China is the exact same reason why we were short China at the beginning of 2010. The core tenet to our Q1 Hedgeye Macro Theme - Chinese Ox In a Box – was that the Chinese were going to tighten the screws on speculative growth. They did. Economic growth slowed for almost 7 consecutive months. And no matter where you go this morning, here China’s data is – re-accelerating for the 1st time sequentially in 2010.

 

Whether you are a chaos theorist or not, you need to “look for what is, and not for what you think should be.” Jim Chanos is a world class short seller and he can be convincing in his longer term duration call that China can blow up. But I can tell you that is not happening today. In fact, I’ll put my risk management neck out on a limb here and make the call that China isn’t going to blow up this week either!

 

China is what it is right now – re-accelerating growth.

 

Sure, this will come at a cost to both your equity short positions (futures up) and the Chinese citizenry (inflation up). The world’s dark little deflation secret is that it’s not happening anywhere other than in certain assets domiciled in certain Fiat Republics. If you own J.R. Ewing’s 1980’s ranch on steroids and thought that having llamas grazing the front of your Connecticut front yard was going to inflate your property value in perpetuity, sorry to tell you like it is…

 

Here’s a real-time Asian market price check: 

  1. China’s Shanghai Composite trades up another +0.9% overnight , taking its rally from the July lows to +13.8%.
  2. Hong Kong +1.9%, South Korea +0.9%, and India making another new YTD high trading up +2.2%.
  3. Japan even caught a bid, giving a Fiat Republic a bone, getting the Nikkei to close above its immediate term TRADE line of 9,190. 

Here’s a real-time Europe/Middle East market price check: 

  1. Germany’s DAX is up another +0.8% (bullish TRADE and TREND; we are long EWG), and now up +5.1% for the YTD.
  2. Spain +1.1%, Italy +1.4%, and Ireland +1.3% as the pain trade for those who shorted the Euro’s bottom in June continues.
  3. Russia +1.5%, Norway +1.2%, and United Arab Emirates busting a +2.3% move to the upside as oil breaks out above our TREND line. 

Here’s a real-time Commodity/Currency market price check: 

  1. CRB Commodities Index indicated up again this morning after going bullish from a TRADE and TREND perspective 3 weeks ago.
  2. Oil prices have confirmed the critical breakout above our intermediate term TREND line of $75.70/barrel last week.
  3. Chinese Yuan/USD 6.75 this morning is a new record (post 2005) high and Euro/USD is trading solidly above TREND line support of $1.26. 

I guess Timmy shouldn’t have called the Europeans piggies and the Chinese manipulators. After all, in the end markets and political lives all find a funny way of finding where everything starts – not for what the conflicted and compromised want them to be, but for what they are.

 

We’ve reduced our cash position in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model to 55% (down from last week where we started the week at 64% and down from our 2010 YTD peak cash position of 79%). My immediate term support and resistance lines for the SP500 are now 1107 and 1129, respectively. The greatest risk to not being short US Equities right here and now is that Congress is back in session today.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

China Is What It Is - 1


THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 13, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -0.23% (1,107) downside and 1.75% (1,129) upside.  Equity futures are trading above fair value in response to the new global capital standard rules for banks announced over the weekend with better-than-expected Chinese August production, consumption and inflation data also underpinning sentiment.

  • Airgas (ARG) said Sept. 10 it may buy back $700m or more stock should Air Products & Chemicals (APD) withdraw its $5.5b offer
  • Casey’s General Stores (CASY): Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD/B CN) said it may raise offer following $40-shr bid from 7-Eleven
  • Comverse Technology (CMVT) delayed filing results for quarter ended July 31, saying it needs time to adjust past earnings
  • EResearchTechnology (ERES) said CEO Michael McKelvey will retire and company is searching for a successor
  • Intuit (INTU) may rise as much as 25% in next 12 months, Barron’s reported, citing Cowen’s Peter Goldmacher
  • Oshkosh (OSK) got a $260m contract to produce 2,060 medium tactical vehicles, DoD says
  • PG&E (PCG): Sections of PCG pipeline that ruptured in Sept. 9 blast are being sent to Washington for testing and analysis
  • Patriot Coal (PCX US) cut 3Q sales volume est. by 10%
  • VMWare (VMW) may decline amid growing challenges from rivals, Barron’s reported
  • Williams-Sonoma (WSM) said it plans to buy back as much as $65m more shares
  • Xerox (XRX) may double as it pushes into data processing, analysis and storage, Barron’s reported

PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.46%, S&P +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.28%, Russell +0.29%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +4.47%, S&P +5.74%, Nasdaq +6.08%, Russell +5.71%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +7.05%, S&P +7.65%, Nasdaq +6.32%, Russell +4.43%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +0.33%, S&P (0.5%), Nasdaq (1.18%), Russell +1.77%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 824 (+80)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 756.23 (-9.88%)  
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Only sector down on Friday was the XLU
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Moody’s +5.85%,Cameron +3.95% and Viacom +3.69%/PG&E -8.35%, Natl Semi -6.36% and Micron -4.26%
  • VIX: 21.99 -3.59% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (+1.43%)            
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.95 from 1.88  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 15.83, -0.203 (-1.265%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: .14% trading flat
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.23 from 2.20

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 275.14 +0.71% - Two down days in the last nine
  • Oil: 76.45 +2.96% 
  • COPPER: 340.65 -1.07%
  • GOLD: 1,243 -0.23%

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.2679 -0.17%
  • DOLLAR: 82.698 +0.03%

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

ASIA

  • Asian markets: Nikkei +0.89%; Shanghai Composite +0.94%
  • Markets closed sharply higher, boosted by Chinese economic data released this weekend. Banks rose on the release of Basel III requirements that met expectations and resource stocks gained on higher crude futures.
  • Japan was broadly higher.
  • Banks gained 2% on the Basel rules, and China-linked shares went up on the Chinese economic data

EUROPE

  • FTSE 100: +0.8%; DAX +0.8%; CAC 40 +1.1%
  • Indices are trading higher with financial names to the fore as markets react positively to the improved visibility afforded by the new capital adequacy rules established by Basell III. 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER


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