The Grind: What's In My Notebook

I’m going to start trying to bullet point data, prices, and signals that I fail to weave into my Early Look notes.


In the last 24 hours, here are some green (bullish) and red (bearish) highlights from my notebook:



  1. Netherlands CPI down sequentially to 1.2% y/y (AUG) vs. 1.3% (JUL)
  2. Germany CPI down sequentially to 1.0% y/y (AUG) vs 1.2% (JUL)
  3.  FTSE/DAX/Denmark all flashing bullish TRADE and TREND
  4. India’s IP growth rips higher sequentially in July to +13.8% y/y vs +5.8% June
  5. Chinese passenger car sales boom higher to +18.7 (AUG) y/y vs 13.6% (JUL)
  6. Chinese Equities bullish TRADE and TREND confirmed by the same on the Hang Seng
  7. Brazil inflation decels sequentially to 4.49% (AUG) y/y vs 4.6% (JUL)
  8. Brazilian and Canadian equities bullish TRADE and TREND
  9. Commodities (CRB Index) traded up on both dollar UP and dollar DOWN days this week
  10. Oil taking a run at breaking out above its TREND line = $75.64
  11. Copper and Gold remain bullish TRADE and TREND with Gold’s immediate term TRADE support = 1233
  12. US Treasury yields breaking out above TRADE lines this week (2yr TRADE line = 0.52%, 10yr TRADE line = 2.68%)
  13. Jobless claims breaking down through the 4wk rolling average = new immediate term TRADE
  14. All 9 sectors in our S&P 500 risk management model are bullish TRADE now
  15. Dubai World restructuring debt as opposed to piling more debt upon debt (Greece)


  1. Fed’s Balance Sheet expands w/w to $2.31 TRILLION (+$3.7B w/w)
  2. Philippines issuing $1B in Peso Bonds
  3. Argentina showing a +94% YTD rise in asset backed bond sales (most since default in 2001)
  4. Japanese Equities have crashed (down more than -20% since YTD peak)
  5. US Dollar remains bearish from a long term TAIL and intermediate term TREND perspective
  6. Greek stocks flashing a very negative divergence this week vs European equities (down -28% YTD and worst in world)
  7. Hungary and Latvia also flashing negative divergences vs. FTSE/DAX this morning
  8. Vietnam equities continues to flash very bearish versus Asian equities (down another -2.2% overnight)
  9. SP500 remains broken from an intermediate term TREND perspective with resistance up at 1144 (down -9.3% since YTD high)
  10. US equity volumes remained bone dry this week – volume studies bearish on TRADE, TREND and TAIL
  11. XLF (Financials) remain broken from an intermediate term TREND perspective
  12. Harrisburg, PA default pending if they miss the September 15th payment


Keith R. McCullough

Chief Executive Officer


The Grind: What's In My Notebook - 1

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more