The Grind: What's In My Notebook

I’m going to start trying to bullet point data, prices, and signals that I fail to weave into my Early Look notes.

In the last 24 hours, here are some green (bullish) and red (bearish) highlights from my notebook:

BULLISH:

  1. Netherlands CPI down sequentially to 1.2% y/y (AUG) vs. 1.3% (JUL)
  2. Germany CPI down sequentially to 1.0% y/y (AUG) vs 1.2% (JUL)
  3.  FTSE/DAX/Denmark all flashing bullish TRADE and TREND
  4. India’s IP growth rips higher sequentially in July to +13.8% y/y vs +5.8% June
  5. Chinese passenger car sales boom higher to +18.7 (AUG) y/y vs 13.6% (JUL)
  6. Chinese Equities bullish TRADE and TREND confirmed by the same on the Hang Seng
  7. Brazil inflation decels sequentially to 4.49% (AUG) y/y vs 4.6% (JUL)
  8. Brazilian and Canadian equities bullish TRADE and TREND
  9. Commodities (CRB Index) traded up on both dollar UP and dollar DOWN days this week
  10. Oil taking a run at breaking out above its TREND line = $75.64
  11. Copper and Gold remain bullish TRADE and TREND with Gold’s immediate term TRADE support = 1233
  12. US Treasury yields breaking out above TRADE lines this week (2yr TRADE line = 0.52%, 10yr TRADE line = 2.68%)
  13. Jobless claims breaking down through the 4wk rolling average = new immediate term TRADE
  14. All 9 sectors in our S&P 500 risk management model are bullish TRADE now
  15. Dubai World restructuring debt as opposed to piling more debt upon debt (Greece)

BEARISH:

  1. Fed’s Balance Sheet expands w/w to $2.31 TRILLION (+$3.7B w/w)
  2. Philippines issuing $1B in Peso Bonds
  3. Argentina showing a +94% YTD rise in asset backed bond sales (most since default in 2001)
  4. Japanese Equities have crashed (down more than -20% since YTD peak)
  5. US Dollar remains bearish from a long term TAIL and intermediate term TREND perspective
  6. Greek stocks flashing a very negative divergence this week vs European equities (down -28% YTD and worst in world)
  7. Hungary and Latvia also flashing negative divergences vs. FTSE/DAX this morning
  8. Vietnam equities continues to flash very bearish versus Asian equities (down another -2.2% overnight)
  9. SP500 remains broken from an intermediate term TREND perspective with resistance up at 1144 (down -9.3% since YTD high)
  10. US equity volumes remained bone dry this week – volume studies bearish on TRADE, TREND and TAIL
  11. XLF (Financials) remain broken from an intermediate term TREND perspective
  12. Harrisburg, PA default pending if they miss the September 15th payment

Keith R. McCullough

Chief Executive Officer

The Grind: What's In My Notebook - 1