THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 9, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 38 points or 1.74% (1,085) downside and 1.70% (1,123) upside.  Equity futures are trading higher tracking gains across European equities as the region’s banking and mining stocks rebound. Today's macro highlights include: Initial Jobless Claims and July Trade Balance.

  • AvalonBay Communities (AVB) said its AvalonBay Value Added Fund II unit bought an apartment community in Calif. for $98.5m
  • Fuqi International Inc. (FUQI) got SEC subpoena from for failing to file periodic reports on time
  • Men’s Wearhouse (MW) forecast 3Q adj. EPS 40c-47c vs est. 41c
  • Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) said FDA delayed a decision on its application to sell its Acthar drug as treatment for seizures in babies
  • TNS (TNS) agreed to buy Cequint for as much as $112.5m and said it will buy back up to $50m of its stock

 

PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.45%, S&P +0.64%, Nasdaq +0.90%, Russell 2000 +0.79%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +3.72%, S&P +4.72%, Nasdaq +5.43%, Russell +5.35%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +6.27%, S&P +6.61%, Nasdaq +5.67%, Russell +4.06%
  • Year-to-date: Dow (0.39%), S&P (1.46%), Nasdaq (1.78%), Russell +1.42%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1183 (+2599)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 879.91 (+5.96%) - No conviction and a light economic calendar
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: All sectors were up yesterday except XLU.  Tough to find a specific catalyst for yesterday’s performance, though an improvement in the risk backdrop surrounding Europe and the momentum behind the M&A rumor mill also offered some upside.
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: NY Times +7.99%, Priceline +5.53% and Huntington Bank +4.48%/Visa -4.13%, Nisource -3.86% and Tereadyne -3.53%
  • VIX: 23.25 -2.31% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (+7.24%)            
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.04 from 2.00

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.67 -0.101 (-0.604%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: .14% trading flat
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.14 from 2.12  

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 274.27 +0.17% - Coffee at a 13 year high
  • Oil: 74.67 +0.78% up for the first day in three
  • COPPER: 344.65 +0.86%
  • GOLD: 1,255 -0.07%

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.2750 +0.14%
  • DOLLAR: 82.585 -0.28%

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

ASIA

  • Nikkei +0.82%; Shanghai Composite (1.44%)
  • Asian markets were mixed today even though concerns about European debt problems were addressed by successful bond auctions yesterday.

 

EUROPE

  • FTSE 100: +0.51%; DAX: +0.12%; CAC 40: +0.35% (as of 04:55 ET)
  • European markets opened lower, seeing some profit taking after yesterday's strong gains.
  • Ireland's Finance Minister looked to reassure markets over Anglo Irish Bank saying the government hopes to produce definitive figures on the cost of its restructuring by the end of October.
  • No movement on the part of the BOE; 0.5% benchmark interest rate and the £200B asset purchase program remains unchanged.
  • Banks and technology groups are amongst the leading gainers with all but four sectors trading higher. US futures trade higher.
Howard Penney
Managing Director

Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more