Conclusion: European PMI Services fell or substantially slowed in August, which is line with our forecast for a negative inflection in the August data from Europe. We continue to expect a decline in consumption across Europe post the exuberance of the World Cup and in response to the enactment of austerity measures that should induce individual belt-tightening and hamper confidence. The British Pound is one European currency that’s taken a notable dive alongside headline data, down -3.4% over the last month.
Of the countries reporting, here are the PMI Services numbers in August versus July:
- UK: 51.3 versus 53.1
- France: 60.4 versus 61.1
- Russia: 47.0 versus 54.2
- Spain: 49.2 versus 51.3
- Ireland: 52.9 versus 55.7
- Germany: 57.2 versus 56.5
- Italy: 51.4 versus 49.6
- Eurozone: 55.9 versus 55.8
The German, French, and British economies are anchoring points in our analysis. The negative move in August PMI (German PMI Manufacturing released on Wednesday was unchanged in August, while the UK fell to 54.3 from 56.9) bodes poorly for the region, especially due to the fact that Germany, France and the UK are often the largest trading partners with other EU member states.
Matthew Hedrick
Analyst
