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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 3, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or 2.7% (1,061) downside and 0.01% (1,091) upside. 

Equity futures are trading flat to higher as the market awaits key US non-farm payroll data later. Today's macro highlights include: Aug Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug Unemployment Rate, Aug Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.

  • Arcsight (ARST) didn’t mention sale in 1Q earnings after WSJ last week reported co. is on the auction block
  • Esterline Technologies (ESL) boosted 2010 EPS forecast to $3.85-$3.95 from $3.45-$3.65, vs est. $3.60
  • Finisar (FNSR) forecast 2Q rev. $215m-$230m vs est. $206.1m
  • H&R Block (HRB) reported 4Q loss per share of $0.36 vs estimate of a loss of $0.41
  • Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) forecast FY11 operating income ex charges $13m-$17m, up from prev. guidance $11m-$15m
  • Quicksilver (ZQK) reported 3Q rev. $441.5m vs estimate $443.7m
  • SeaChange International (SEAC) CUTS FY rev. forecast to $215m-$220m from $225m-$235m
  • Sunoco (SUN) said former GM CEO Frederick A. Henderson has joined the company as a senior VP
  • Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) boosts FY adj. EPS forecast to $0.60-$0.70, from loss $0.10-$0.30, vs estimate $0.20 loss
  • Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) forecast 3Q adj. EPS $0.20-$0.22c vs estimate $0.17
  • U.S. Airways Group (LCC) said August passenger rev. per available seat mile increased estimate 15%

PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.49%, S&P +0.91%, Nasdaq +1.06%, Russell 2000 +1.16%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +3.05%, S&P +3.89%, Nasdaq +4.07%, Russell +5.02%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +5.59%, S&P +5.76%, Nasdaq +4.30%, Russell +3.74%
  • Year-to-date: Dow (1.04%), S&P (2.24%), Nasdaq (3.05%), Russell +1.10%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1228 (-1005)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 960.71 (-19%) - volume drying up ahead of the jobs report
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: All sectors up XLU
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Nordstrom +8.05%, Goodyear Tire +6.30% and LTD Brands +6.10%/Abercrombie -3.88%, Tyson -3.32% and Total Systems -3.30%
  • VIX: 23.19 -2.93% - down 15.3% in past week - YTD PERFORMANCE - +7.0%         
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.32 from 1.21  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.91 +0.249 (1.495%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .14% +.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.13 from 2.08

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 271.15 +0.98%
  • Oil: 75.02 +1.50% - a 2 day rally looks to end today
  • COPPER: 349.55 +0.52% - Dr C ragging ahead again
  • GOLD: 1,250 -0.36% - up 4 of the last 5 days

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.2808 +0.09% - looking at a 4 day rally
  • DOLLAR: 82.463 -0.07% - looking to be down for the last 3 days

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

ASIA

  • Nikkei +0.57%; Shanghai Composite (0.01%)
  • Most Asian markets ended higher or flat fuelled on the day. Technology stocks in the region outperformed tracking Nasdaq’s rise yesterday.

 

EUROPE

  • FTSE 100: +0.25%; DAX +0.31%; CAC 40: +0.40%
  • Major European indices are trading flat ahead of US non-farm payroll data later today. Technology stocks are higher in the region tracking gains by their peers in Asia earlier and on the Nasdaq yesterday. Food & Beverages and Autos are among the worst performing sectors this morning in Europe.
  • UK Aug Services PMI 51.3 vs consensus 52.9 and prior 53.1
  • EuroZone Aug Final Services PMI 55.9 vs preliminary 55.6
  • EuroZone Aug Final Composite PMI 56.2 vs preliminary 56.1
  • Germany Aug Final Services PMI 57.2 vs preliminary 58.5
  • France Aug Final Services PMI 60.4 vs preliminary 59.9
  • Eurozone July Retail Sales +1.1% y/y vs consensus +0.6% and prior revised +1.2% from +0.4% 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER