THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 3, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or 2.7% (1,061) downside and 0.01% (1,091) upside. 

Equity futures are trading flat to higher as the market awaits key US non-farm payroll data later. Today's macro highlights include: Aug Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug Unemployment Rate, Aug Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.

  • Arcsight (ARST) didn’t mention sale in 1Q earnings after WSJ last week reported co. is on the auction block
  • Esterline Technologies (ESL) boosted 2010 EPS forecast to $3.85-$3.95 from $3.45-$3.65, vs est. $3.60
  • Finisar (FNSR) forecast 2Q rev. $215m-$230m vs est. $206.1m
  • H&R Block (HRB) reported 4Q loss per share of $0.36 vs estimate of a loss of $0.41
  • Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) forecast FY11 operating income ex charges $13m-$17m, up from prev. guidance $11m-$15m
  • Quicksilver (ZQK) reported 3Q rev. $441.5m vs estimate $443.7m
  • SeaChange International (SEAC) CUTS FY rev. forecast to $215m-$220m from $225m-$235m
  • Sunoco (SUN) said former GM CEO Frederick A. Henderson has joined the company as a senior VP
  • Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) boosts FY adj. EPS forecast to $0.60-$0.70, from loss $0.10-$0.30, vs estimate $0.20 loss
  • Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) forecast 3Q adj. EPS $0.20-$0.22c vs estimate $0.17
  • U.S. Airways Group (LCC) said August passenger rev. per available seat mile increased estimate 15%

PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.49%, S&P +0.91%, Nasdaq +1.06%, Russell 2000 +1.16%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +3.05%, S&P +3.89%, Nasdaq +4.07%, Russell +5.02%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +5.59%, S&P +5.76%, Nasdaq +4.30%, Russell +3.74%
  • Year-to-date: Dow (1.04%), S&P (2.24%), Nasdaq (3.05%), Russell +1.10%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1228 (-1005)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 960.71 (-19%) - volume drying up ahead of the jobs report
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: All sectors up XLU
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Nordstrom +8.05%, Goodyear Tire +6.30% and LTD Brands +6.10%/Abercrombie -3.88%, Tyson -3.32% and Total Systems -3.30%
  • VIX: 23.19 -2.93% - down 15.3% in past week - YTD PERFORMANCE - +7.0%         
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.32 from 1.21  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.91 +0.249 (1.495%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .14% +.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.13 from 2.08

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 271.15 +0.98%
  • Oil: 75.02 +1.50% - a 2 day rally looks to end today
  • COPPER: 349.55 +0.52% - Dr C ragging ahead again
  • GOLD: 1,250 -0.36% - up 4 of the last 5 days

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.2808 +0.09% - looking at a 4 day rally
  • DOLLAR: 82.463 -0.07% - looking to be down for the last 3 days

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

ASIA

  • Nikkei +0.57%; Shanghai Composite (0.01%)
  • Most Asian markets ended higher or flat fuelled on the day. Technology stocks in the region outperformed tracking Nasdaq’s rise yesterday.

 

EUROPE

  • FTSE 100: +0.25%; DAX +0.31%; CAC 40: +0.40%
  • Major European indices are trading flat ahead of US non-farm payroll data later today. Technology stocks are higher in the region tracking gains by their peers in Asia earlier and on the Nasdaq yesterday. Food & Beverages and Autos are among the worst performing sectors this morning in Europe.
  • UK Aug Services PMI 51.3 vs consensus 52.9 and prior 53.1
  • EuroZone Aug Final Services PMI 55.9 vs preliminary 55.6
  • EuroZone Aug Final Composite PMI 56.2 vs preliminary 56.1
  • Germany Aug Final Services PMI 57.2 vs preliminary 58.5
  • France Aug Final Services PMI 60.4 vs preliminary 59.9
  • Eurozone July Retail Sales +1.1% y/y vs consensus +0.6% and prior revised +1.2% from +0.4% 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER


Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more