The Case For $ABNB | Pre-IPO Deep Dive

12/03/20 03:30PM EST

Below is a call invite for our Airbnb (ABNB) presentation on Monday, December 7th @ 2PM ET hosted by Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure (GLL) analysts Todd Jordan and Sean Jenkins. If you are an institutional investor interested in accessing the call, please email

The Case For $ABNB | Pre-IPO Deep Dive  - 12 3 2020 3 16 44 PM


The long awaited Airbnb (ABNB) public offering will price in December and it should prove to be one of the most important travel sector IPOs in some time. We’ve presented three Alternative Accommodation (AA) decks over the past two years including one specifically covering ABNB so there is a strong base of analysis to build upon. 

Next Monday, we’ll present a comprehensive review of ABNB and the AA industry including a ton of new data and analysis to help you prep for this potentially hot IPO.  With favorable macro on the come, positive vaccine news, and a pending acceleration in leisure travel, the timing looks solid for this IPO. Given the sheer size of the company and this new industry, the ABNB IPO will be about more than just ABNB.  AA is perhaps the growthiest sector within travel and other players have made their own push including EXPE and BKNG so there is competition to discuss.

We’ll provide another invite closer to the date with some of our more detailed conclusions but read on to get a glimpse of what will be presented in next week’s deck.


As always, we will try to deliver our findings through detailed and data driven analysis that differs from the Street.  Here are the key topics to be addressed:

  • Proprietary Tools & Process Reveal:  Much of our market analysis utilizes proprietary tools.  We’ll provide call attendees with a review of our tracking data that will be the foundation for our AA industry research and modeling Airbnb.  Hedgeye ABNB Room Night Tracker, Global ADR Tracker, and much more.

  • Airbnb – Unicorn or Cash Flow Wolf?: With financials in hand and a full model build out, we’ll uncover what kind of company we think Airbnb is today, but more importantly what it could become down the road.  Can it make the transition from being a highflyer to a well-oiled cash flow machine? We’ll walk through it all and provide our forward assumptions, inclusive of bear, base, and bull cases + a read on initial valuation work.  

  • Airbnb – Model Tear Down and Comparison:  If it walks like an OTA and talks like an OTA, well then it must be an OTA… We’ll delve into the model comparisons vs its relevant competition and address strengths, weaknesses, and isolate its “solvable inefficiencies.”  

  • Unpacking a Very Growthy Industry – AA Deep Dive:  AA means more today to more stocks than ever before.  We will quantify the AA market size, the penetration, the industry nuance, the runway for growth, and the key dynamics that are likely to shape its future.  

  • Modeling the “True” TAM / SAM – AA Deep Dive:  New information provides the opportunity to reset our growth forecast and addressability for the AA market, and that’s just what we’ll do.  Using industry data and guideposts we’ll model out where we see the AA industry in 10-15years and challenge ABNB’s own calculations. 

  • How many horses are truly in the race? – Ecosystem Review:  Is the AA industry a one winner takes all market? Some seem to think it is, but the data suggests it’s not that simple.  We’ll review the state of the “Big 3” under a few distinct criteria including company focus, brand power, inventory differences, and geographic mix.


Date & Time: Monday, December 7th @ 2PM ET

Add Invite to Outlook Calendar: CLICK HERE   

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