THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 30, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or 2.59% (1,037) downside and 0.32% (1,068) upside.  Though off their earlier highs, equity futures are still trading above fair value in what has been a quiet pre-market session highlighted by news that Intel will acquire Infineon's wireless unit, and Sanofi-Aventis will acquire Genzyme.

 

Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) may rise as the company boosts earnings with higher sales and reduced costs, Barron’s reported.

 

Benihana Inc. (BNHNA) posted 1Q EPS of $0.08, trailing the estimate of $0.11.

 

Intel (INTC) agreed to purchase Infineon’s wireless unit for $1.4b

 

Kensington Leasing (KNSL) agreed to buy WealthMakers for $15.7m

 

Level 3 Communications (LVLT) CEO James Crowe sold 2m shares of the network operator to certain board members for $1.05 each.

 

Unica (UNCA): Mario Gabelli’s Gamco Investors Inc. reported an 8.2% stake as of June 30.

  • PERFORMANCE ONE DAY: Dow +1.65%, S&P +1.66%, Nasdaq +1.65%, Russell +2.83%
  • PERFORMANCE MONTH-TO-DATE: Dow (3.01%), S&P (3.36%), Nasdaq (4.48%), Russell (5.24%)
  • PERFORMANCE QUARTER-TO-DATE: Dow +3.85%, S&P +3.29%, Nasdaq +2.1%, Russell +1.19%
  • PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE: Dow (2.66%), S&P (4.53%), Nasdaq (5.09%), Russell (1.38%)
  • NCE/DECLINE LINE: +2161 (+3018)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1097.83 (-5.02%) - Volume acceleration
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Every sector traded up on Friday
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS LAST WEEK: Lincoln National +10.27%, Western Digital +6.82% and Hartford Fin +6.44%/Sandisk -4.44%, Tiffany -3.16% and Urban Outfitter -1.49%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • VIX:- 24.45 -10.67%        
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.11 down from 1.47  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 14.98 -0.913 (-5.744%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: .15% -0.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.10 from 1.99

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 267.27 +1.22% - moved higher last week
  • Oil: 75.17 +2.47% -
  • COPPER: 338.45 +1.77% - Two week move higher
  • GOLD: 1,235 -0.08% - up 4 straight weeks

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.2763 +0.48% - moved higher last week
  • DOLLAR: 82.918 -0.02% - moved lower last week  

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

  • ASIA - Nikkei +1.76%; Hang Seng +0.68%; Shanghai Composite +1.61% - Asian markets followed last Fridays move, though some of the optimism was muted when the Bank of Japan disappointed investors in the country with its lunchtime announcement of tepid measures to weaken the yen.
  • EUROPE - FTSE 100: closed; DAX: +0.11%; CAC 40: (0.29%) - With London closed for the Summer Bank Holiday and the Continent enjoying the last week of August, Europe is quiet this morning. While M&A news and the BOJ's announcement that it will keep the overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.1% originally buoyed markets marginally higher, the CAC is now down on the day
  • Eurozone August economic sentiment 101.8 vs. consensus 101.7 and prior revised 101.1 

Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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