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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 25, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 37 points or 1.13% (1,040) downside and 2.39% (1,077) upside.  Equity futures are trading modestly above fair value following Tuesday's sharp sell-off; the positive tone is being set by a steadier open in Europe.

Today's macro highlight will be July Durable Goods and July New Home Sales.

  • PERFORMANCE ONE DAY: Dow (1.31%), S&P (1.45%), Nasdaq (1.66%), Russell 2000 (1.17%)
  • PERFORMANCE MONTH-TO-DATE: Dow (4.07%), S&P (4.51%), Nasdaq (5.81%), Russell (8.50%)
  • PERFORMANCE QUARTER-TO-DATE: Dow +2.73%, S&P +2.05%, Nasdaq +0.69%, Russell (2.28)%
  • PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE: Dow (3.72%), S&P (5.67%), Nasdaq (5.12%), Russell (4.77%)
  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1571 (-785) - continues erosion yesterday
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1175 (+35%) - volume accelerated as stocks moved lower
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: XLU only sector positive and up the last three days; XLB breaks TREND
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Southern Co +1.51%, Lennar +1.42% and Ameren +1.37%.  Medtronic -10.80%, Stryker -6.37% and Sandisk -6.04%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • VIX - 27.46 +7.01%          
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO - 0.87 down from 1.78 (matching the 7/15 low)  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 17.16 0.913 (5.621%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .16% unchanged
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.00 from 2.11

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 262.46 -1.34% down 7 of the last 8 days
  • Oil: 71.63 -2.01%
  • COPPER: 326.20 -1.52% - biggest down day in a week
  • GOLD: 1,230 +0.34%

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.26728 +0.03%
  • DOLLAR: 83.146 +0.03%

 OVERSEAS MARKETS:

  • ASIA - Most markets closed lower. China closed down 2% following the move in the USA.  A pre-open report that the Bank of Japan is considering taking additional monetary easing steps before its scheduled policy meeting in early Sep provided a little support for Japanese markets but failed to counteract the effects of the strong yen. Yoshihiko Noda, Japan's finance minister, said he was considering “appropriate action” on what he described as “one-sided” moves in the yen
  • EUROPE - Most markets are flat to slightly higher; Ireland up 0.85% following S&P's downgrade of Ireland's sovereign rating to 'AA-' from 'AA'.  Germany's business confidence indicator has offered some support along with some solid corporate earnings. Construction sector outperforming, with oil & gas lagging.
  • LATIN AMERICA - Argentina and Mexico are down 3.1% and 2.4%, respectively.  Yesterday, in Mexico retail sales rose 1.5% in June from the same month a year earlier, the statistics agency said yesterday, below the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey for a 4.3% increase.
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER