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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9th, 2020

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WEEKLY POSITION MONITOR UPDATE

Healthcare analysts Tom Tobin and William McMahon review their best stock ideas, major healthcare themes and more.

On Monday’s Health Care Webcast, we will cover:

  • Position Monitor Updates
    • (+) AMN | Earnings recap, continued upside expected.
    • (+) GH |Weekly claims Index does not show COVID is having a negative impact in 4Q20 as management suggested.
    • (+) NTRA | Tests accessioned up substantially following expanded ACOG Guidelines, Medicare coverage decisions, two additional Signatera trials.
    • (+) USPH | We flagged US Physical Therapy several weeks ago as prospective long candidate into earnings. We saw evidence that in person care was improving among younger patients and physical therapy generally skews young.  We also developed a forecast tool which appears to have been right on target.  Based on the Microquad set up, modest upside would be sufficient to rally the shares, which turned out to be accurate, although we did not press the position in our list as we continue to refine our methodology.
    • (+) NEO | Adding to Long Bench
    • (-) HRC | #ThirdWave demand versus capital spending headwinds
  • Expert Opinion | We’ll recap a call we held with Mark Casper where we discussed the prospects for emerging blood tests for cancer, from early detection to therapy selection and long term monitoring. CLICK HERE for replay and associated materials for this call.
  • US Medical Economy | Labor reports from ADP and BLS point to some of the most dramatic shifts in labor demand we’ve ever seen even when compared to the roll out of the ACA, the largest expansion of insurance in decades.  We are seeing average hours ramp across many sites of care, but total employment continues to sink in others.  There are signs that in person is returning among younger patients despite resurgent COVID cases.
  • Fundamental Momentum Slowing | The fundamental backdrop for the US Medical Economy continues to decelerate.  Based on the trend of the last few weeks, we expect a move to Microquad 3 on this update or next. We will have new updates, screen results, and updates to our current Position Monitor. 

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides