THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 23, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or 1.2% (1,059) downside and 1.4% (1,087) upside.  Equity futures are trading above fair value in response to gains seen across Europe as a rise in basic materials temporarily offsets deeper economic concerns.

  • PERFORMANCE LAST WEEK: Dow (0.87%), S&P (0.70%), Nasdaq +0.29%, Russell +0.21%
  • PERFORMANCE MONTH-TO-DATE: Dow (2.41%), S&P (1.5%), Nasdaq (3.32%), Russell (6.16%)
  • PERFORMANCE QUARTER-TO-DATE: Dow +4.5%, S&P +3.98%, Nasdaq +3.34%, Russell +0.21%
  • PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE: Dow (2.06%), S&P (3.89%), Nasdaq (3.94%), Russell (2.34%)
  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -502 (+1408) Breadth positive on a down day
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1124.11 (+4.7%) - Volume up on a down day
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Every sector down but the XLU; XLE notable to the down side
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS LAST WEEK: McAfee +57.0%, Salesforce.com +15.95% and Intuit +15.66% - Devry -11.07% Supervalue -8.28% and Sears -7.45%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • VIX - 25.49 -3.59% and down 2.86% for the week
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO - 2.03 up from 1.31  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 17.348, -1.070, (-5.812%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .15% -.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.13 from 2.09

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 267.01 -0.45% and -0.66% for the week - 2nd down week in a row
  • Oil: 73.82 -1.27% and down -2.57% for the week - 2nd down week in a row
  • COPPER: 331.15 -0.84% - up 1.19% for the week - Up 4 of the last 5 weeks
  • GOLD: 1,227 -0.42% - up 1.09% for the week; now 3 straight weeks

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.2712 -0.87%; down 0.33% for the week (2nd down week)
  • DOLLAR: 83.057 +0.74%; up 0.13% for the week (2nd up week)

 OVERSEAS MARKETS:

  • ASIA - Most markets closed mixed with economic concerns offset by strong resource sector. In Japan, the Nikkei extended losses amid worries a strong yen will threaten the economic recovery. Shanghai closed flat after moving in a narrow range as investors took profits in stocks which recently outperformed.
  • EUROPE - Regional markets were firmer boosted by stronger resource and financial sectors with ongoing M&A news/speculation also helping to counter-balance concerns about the sustainability of the economic recovery. Economic data out from the Eurozone proved mixed. Volume remains light.
Howard Penney
Managing Director
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