The Eurozone is in Quad 4.
Our Phase 3 model has become very ubiquitous in Europe whether you are looking at the markets or looking at the economic data.
- France Consumer Confidence this morning down 1 point to a 5 month low of 94 in October.
- You have Spanish Retail Sales down 40 basis points to -3.3% YoY in September.
- You also had U.K. Retailer Confidence Index crashed to a 3-month low in October.
Clearly the response to the Coronavirus resurgence is having an impact, but we continue to argue that the credit cycle dynamics are continuing to perpetuate the dispersion in economic and financial market performance within the Eurozone.
So, if you chased the late-summer highs of French or German risk assets, then you clearly:
A) Weren’t respecting the time series history of global pandemics and
B) Weren't paying attention to our research