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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 20, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or 1.6% (1,058) downside and 1.6% (1,093) upside.  Equity futures are trading below fair value as Asian and European markets fall amid a resumption of risk aversion; news flow has been light and volumes are thin.  There are no economic indices scheduled for release today, and earnings are light, with only HRL and JMS reporting.  Last night, DELL reported earnings which beat at EPS while reiterating June guidance.

  • PERFORMANCE ONE DAY: Dow (1.39%), S&P (1.69%), Nasdaq (1.66%), Russell 2000 (2.72%)
  • PERFORMANCE MONTH-TO-DATE: Dow (1.86%), S&P (2.36%), Nasdaq (3.36%), Russell (6.13%)
  • PERFORMANCE QUARTER-TO-DATE: Dow +5.09%, S&P +4.36%, Nasdaq +3.30%, Russell +0.24%
  • PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE: Dow (1.50%), S&P (2.61%), Nasdaq (2.65%), Russell (2.31%)
  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1910 (-2448) Breadth was very negative last two days
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1073.61 (+16.3%) - Light but nice move DoD - bearish
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Every sector down - only three left positive on TREND XLB, XLP and XLU
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS: McAfee +57.0%, Symantec +6.2% and Sears -9.13% and Gamestop -8.19%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • VIX  26.44, +7.52, up 8.59% last two days and 22% YTD.
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO  1.31 down from 1.92

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD 18.42, -0.984, (-5.071%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .16% unchanged
  • YIELD CURVE  2.09 from 2.13 XLF is the only sector down on a 1yr basis

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 268.22 -0.62% Down 4 of the last 5 days
  • Oil: 74.43 -1.31% Breaking down - down 8 of the last 10 days - support at 72.11
  • COPPER:333.05 -0.92% - first down day in 3
  • GOLD: 1,233 +0.11% - up 6 straight days - Bullish formation

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.2823 +0.40% first down day in 3
  • DOLLAR: 82.447 +0.27% first up day in 3

 

 

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

  • ASIA - Major indices tracked Wall Street lower as weak data fuelled fears about a double dip recession and spurred investors to seek safe havens. Tokyo's Nikkei slid nearly 2% as the yen threatened to hit a 15 year high against the dollar. China declined 1.7%
  • EUROPE - Major indices are trading near session lows with weakness across the cyclical names.  Euro trading at its lowest level vs the dollar since mid-July - Greece down 2.9%
  • EASTERN EUROPE - Trading lower - Slovakia and Serbia are the only two markets that are up
  • MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA - Trading mixed to lower
  • LATIN AMERICA -  Trading lower
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER