Takeaway: We forecast 3Q20 revenue of $288M versus guidance of $275-$285M & consensus $282M. TDOC is set to report after the close on October 28th.

TDOC | 3Q 2020 Earnings Preview - tdoc1 

Overview

TDOC thrived during COVID-19 providing patients access to doctors when in person care was locked down. Initially, part of what fueled TDOC's success was the absence of competition. It took time for providers to adapt, for survival initially. But now, telemedicine access is widespread among physicians and other providers with an expanding menu of platforms and providers for patients to choose from.

We model utilization using two drivers, percentage of enrollees utilizing TDOC, and the percentage volume capture rate. Separately we've modeled the number of eligible ambulatory visits that could potentially convert to telemedicine, and we subsequently calculate penetration. TDOC's guidance, given the membership guidance, implies a healthy jump in utilization for 3Q20 that will be sustained through 4Q20 in order to hit both 3Q20 and 2020 guidance. In addition, the standalone TDOC growth for 2021 implies utilization continues to increase through next year.

Overall penetration into the pool of eligible ambulatory visits runs only slightly ahead of TDOCs reported utilization number which means there is significant headroom, even with a more competitive market. In the shorter term we continue to see app downloads and and weekly average users reflect good growth for both Teladoc and Betterhelp. With COVID19 cases accelerating nationally, there should be a corresponding tailwind to TDOC visits as well.

For the call we will be listening for the following:

  • Selling season, membership as a driver for 2021
  • Competition from providers on platforms such as Amwell, SOC Telemed, many others
  • Virtual Primary Care update for roll out, is there a need for in person care, or can everything be done through remote monitoring
  • InTouch progress update, lawsuit with AMWL
  • How does the lack of a flu season impact numbers?
  • LVGO commentary, although likely not anything new

Earnings Preview & Estimate Revisions

TDOC | 3Q 2020 Earnings Preview - tdoc2 

TDOC | 3Q 2020 Earnings Preview - tdoc3 

Hedgeye Health Care Model & Microquads

TDOC | 3Q 2020 Earnings Preview - tdoc4 

TDOC | 3Q 2020 Earnings Preview - tdoc5 

TDOC | 3Q 2020 Earnings Preview - tdoc6 

Telehealth & App Download Data

TDOC | 3Q 2020 Earnings Preview - tdoc7 

TDOC | 3Q 2020 Earnings Preview - tdoc8 

TDOC + LVGO Synergies

TDOC | 3Q 2020 Earnings Preview - tdoc9 

All data available upon request. Please reach out to  with any inquiries.

Thomas Tobin
Managing Director


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William McMahon
Analyst


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Justin Venneri
Director, Primary Research


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