Bear Market Macro: SP500 Levels, Refreshed...

Since April, there have been bulls who have appeared and disappeared. All the while this Thunder Bay Bear has remained bearish.

 

I’m not bearish on every country and every asset class. If you look at Hedgeye’s Virtual Portfolio, you’ll see that we actually have as many longs as we do shorts right now (we’re long Indonesia, the British Pound, etc). We’re simply bearish on both America’s currency and stock market.

 

As risk managers who are accountable to the score every day, we force feed ourselves the most immediate term data points (both economic and price oriented). Sometimes the data doesn’t support our bearish stance, most of the time it does. Otherwise we wouldn’t remain bearish.

 

This morning’s jobless claims report of 500,000 was an absolute bomb (highest since November of 2009). Next week’s Existing Home Sales report (August 24th) will be a bomb too. Bombs are bearish.

 

From a quantitative factoring perspective, as of 11AM EST my model is flashing me lower-highs of immediate term resistance (1093) and lower-lows of immediate term support (1059). That’s bearish too.

 

I’m not always bearish, but when I am – I use Hedgeye.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

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