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Grocery Demand Remains Elevated While Traffic Stays Down - 10 21 2020 11 07 59 AM

For the week ended October 11, the total CPG index was up 11% YOY, flat with the prior week in grocery stores, as seen in the following chart. Demand was led by the frozen category, which was up 18%.

Beverage alcohol was also strong, up 17%. Edible categories were up 11% down from 12% the prior week, while non-edible categories were up 7% even with the prior week.

Seafood continues to lead fresh food categories. Seafood is a cuisine many Americans prefer to eat in restaurants than at home, so it is likely directly benefiting from more meals consumed at home.

Grocery Demand Remains Elevated While Traffic Stays Down - NT1

However, customer traffic is down in the supermarket sector. The combination of growth in online shopping and trip consolidation has led to lower foot traffic.

Average spending is up, so spending per trip has also increased. It seems logical that time per shopping trip has also increased.

The following chart from shows both the number of trips and the time per trip for the largest supermarket chains.

Only three of the largest chains have seen traffic increases during the pandemic, Winn-Dixie (SEGR), Publix, and Safeway (ACI).

This shift in shopping behavior is the most significant for grocers, co-tenants, and shopping center owners.

Grocery Demand Remains Elevated While Traffic Stays Down - NT2