Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
|
How committed are establishment econs to devaluing the US Dollar? A: Very. How truthful and transparent are they about the transmission mechanism to “create the inflation we all need”? A: Not at all. This is what gets the Bitcoin Hornets all fired up and trolling perma US Dollar bulls about “staying poor.” In real purchasing power terms, you will be poorer if you don’t buy inflation hedges. As you can see in the Chart of The Day, the context of this particular moment in US Dollar Cycle Time matters more than just about anything else. Much like it was in 1999-2000, the US Dollar is coming off an epic (high) level. The scope for downside in 2021 is epic too. Why? Well, that’s easy. A: #Quad2 While I’ve been accurately and appropriately risk managing the rising probability of #Quad4 in Q4 since early September, by the time we get to November/December, I’m going to be risk managing if/when #Quad3 US Stagflation (with down year-over-year GDP) becomes #Quad2 GROWTH and INFLATION #accelerating, at the same time, by FEB-MAR of 2021. #Quad2 in Q2 of 2021 is almost a layup view. Re-read that paragraph. It’s important to pay attention to the timing of it all. That’s not easy. But it is my job. In an epically politicized and polarized world of media, it’s also my responsibility to hold these Big Government People to real-time account. Never has the government told poor people that they have an inflation problem in their cost of living that the government created. Never is a long time. And if #Quad4 Deflation probability starts to rise again, it won’t take me much time to go back to that positioning! |
