THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 26 points or 0.7% (1,072) downside and 1.7% (1,098) upside.  Equity futures are trading below fair value after Japanese Q2 GDP data came in below expectations providing evidence QE does not revive economic growth.

The important MACRO data is due out tomorrow are PPI, Housing Starts/Permits and Industrial Production.  On the earnings front, retailers will be in focus this week with Lowe's, Home Depot and Wal-Mart reporting.

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -278 (+158) positive on a down day - day 2!
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 871.65 (-13.47%) - 2nd slowest day of the week!
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: One sector positive - XLU
  • MARKET LEADING/LOOSING STOCKS: Nvidia +4.8%, Ameren +3.2 and Nordstrom (-7.15%) and Devry (-5.74%)

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • VIX - 26.24 1.98% - Big move last week up 20%.
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO - 1.83 down from 2.98 (low of 0.87 on 07/15/10)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 22.43 0.203 (0.913%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .15% Unchanged
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.2063 to 2.1408 (close)  - Now at 2.1265 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 268.79 -0.03% (ugly week down 2.15%)
  • Oil: 75.39 -0.46% (-6.58% last week)
  • COPPER: 327.25 -1.00% (-2.72% last week)
  • GOLD: 1,214 +0.11% (up 0.79% last week)

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.2754 -0.74% - (trading down 3.96% last week)
  • DOLLAR: 82.948 +0.38%) - (trading up 3.16% last week)

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

  • ASIA - Asian markets traded mixed after data from Japan showed Q2 GDP rose +0.4%, worse than the median forecast for 2.3% growth; China traded up 2.1%.
  • EUROPE - Major markets are trading lower as weaker than expected Japanese Q2 GDP sets the early tone
  •  EASTERN EUROPE - Trading mixed to higher - Russia is struggling while Romania is up 1.4%.
  • MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA - UAE is trading higher 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER