This is pretty important to me given that a material slide in cotton costs could ease the apparel industry’s supply chain strain for a brief while – which would cause me to evaluate where I stand on some of these names vis/vis horrible ‘trend’ and decent ‘trade’.
Leave it to my colleague Andrew Barber to find something in the commodity history books to explain this away. The analysis by Moore Research Center below shows how the seasonal nature of planting/harvesting cotton rather consistently flows through to the yy change in the price of the commodity.
The seasonally weakest time period over the past 33 years? You guessed it. Mid August. It is always tough for me to stomach that ‘seasonal trading charts’ like this have the right to exist. We’ll see if this continues in the coming weeks.