Please don’t lose your sh*t in the morning like some people did on Bitcoin.
People take this very personally apparently. I thought some of you take it personally when I would sell something we were once long of, or if we took down a position; but the Bitcoiners take it to a whole new level.
What you find often with these types of people is that none of them know what Quad 4 is or means.
I don’t have anything personal against Bitcoin or Silver. I’m not for or against either one.
Just look at the chart.
We backtested Bitcoin against the Quads and what did we find out?
The only time you can see a high and rising probability of a crash in Bitcoin or Tech stocks is in Quad 4.
You need to be able to measure with Price, Volume, and Volatility. If you can’t do that, then you can’t have a well thought out opinion on Bitcoin.
I'd say that anybody that is just blindly hold Bitcoin for as far as the eye can see, has to be willing to take on 15-30% drawdowns. Potentially 50%.
That just is not what we do here at Hedgeye.