Convergence | Capital | Consumption
2020 has been an exceptional year, obviously not always in a good way. As we look ahead to the finale of 2020 and into 2021, the tension between expectations, stimulus, and valuation is as tight as it's been all year. For our 4Q '20 Themes Presentation, we've decided to filter our data sets and outlook through the themes of Convergence, Capital, and Consumption.
4Q20 Health Care Themes - Convergence | Capital | Consumption
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Convergence | We believe we are witnessing a once in a generation transformation of the US Medical Economy. As the traditional silos that separate providers, payers, and patients continue to break down, new partnerships and new competitors are converging on the same real estate. COVID19 accelerated what had been the typically glacial pace of change in Healthcare. Will Amazon do to Healthcare what they did to Retail? Will Artificial Intelligence replace physicians? Will genomics be integrated into the vast stores of health and wellness data already being generated?
Capital | The unprecedented support provided by the Federal Reserve and Congress in response to COVID-19 has resulted in a frenzy of capital raising. In past recessions, capital raising has dried up. In 2020, easy access to capital is supporting races to spend in what we think will be winner-take-most competitions.
Consumption | After bouncing off the lows and recovering to "X% of pre-COVID levels," what is the outlook heading into 2021? We'll look at consumption trends across the US Medical Economy with an eye for areas where growth is challenged, sustainable, or accelerating.
Position Monitor | MicroQuads
We continue to refine our quantitative model, which we refer to as our "MicroQuads." Similar to Macro Quads at Hedgeye, which measure rates of change in Real GDP and Inflation to define the economic backdrop and subsequent positioning, we define estimate trends in terms of growth and acceleration. We'll update key fundamental trends for our Position Monitor longs and shorts using our MicroQuad overlay.
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