WEEKLY POSITION MONITOR UPDATE
On Monday’s Health Care Webcast, we will cover:
- BLS Employment Data | The rally off the lows in May and June were driven by data points that were “better than expected” and rate of change positive. As the momentum in revisions, stock prices faded, we saw Healthcare employment data began to lose momentum in August and now again in September. Our measure of estimate trend dynamics, or #microquad, signaled the lows in March and had recently begun decelerating in early August. But all is not equal in the US Medical economy where the nature of in person (and virtual) care means employment and hours worked closely match the underlying patient volume. https://hedgeyehealthcare.s3.amazonaws.com/BLS_HC_OCT2020.pdf
- $GDRX TAM Analysis | Our field work on GoodRx is helping us refine the total addressable market (TAM) analysis is focusing us in on the “typical patient.” From calls with pharmacists and others with direct line of sight to GoodRx and other couponing programs, the average patient tends to be insured with high out of pocket expenses, polypharmacy, younger. There are some highly motivated shoppers from across the continuum as well. We’ve gathered the data for population by age, insurance, income, and prescription count and are close to having a final tally shortly. The Big Question is how big is the TAM? From there, the secondary question of market penetration and competition, and policy can be addressed with the right backdrop.
- Quant Forecasts for 3Q20 | We have a number of forecast tools based on machine learning methodologies that we use to model our companies. Key inputs drive the models and we’ll share the updates for 3Q20.
- #MicroQuad Screen | We’ve developed a method to quantify and compare estimate trends across companies. A portfolio built with the method, and when combined with Hedgeye Macro Quads, can produce high returns, high batting average, with low volatility. With a fundamental overlay, we think we can enhance the performance even more.
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Health Care Webcast | BLS Employment Data, GDRX TAM Analysis, Quant Forecasts, #MicroQuad Screen Please join us on Monday, October 5, 2020 @ 2 PM ET - Add to Outlook Calendar FREE: CLICK HERE for event details (including video and materials links). |
RECAP OF Recent EVENTS
Field Notes | GDRX | A Hospital Pharmacy Executive’s Perspective
CLICK HERE to access the associated note.
Field Notes | GDRX | The Pharmacist's Perspective of Drug Coupons
CLICK HERE to access the associated note.
Health Care Webcast | September 28th, 2020 @ 2 PM ET | ILMN, EXAS, GDRX
CLICK HERE for event details (includes video link and materials link).
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any inquiries.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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