THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or -0.9% (1,080) downside and 1.9% (1,110) upside. Equity futures are trading below fair value.  Today's focus will be the weekly jobless reading and import and export prices. After the close, Cisco (CSCO) reported seeing "unusual uncertainty” and “mixed signals" in the economy after posting in line earnings and revenues slightly below consensus.

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -2290 (-890)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1164.32 (+18.71%) - A summer day but accelerating on down days
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Every sector down - XLK and XLV broken on both durations TRADE and TREND
  • MARKET LEADING/LOOSING STOCKS: Carefusion +8.69, Macy’s +5.88 and Office Depot -8.18% and Allegheny Tech (7.58%)

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • VIX - 25.39 13.50% - The VIX now up for 3 days and bearish for equities.
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO - 1.64 down  from 2.49

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 24.85 0.913 (3.815%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .15% Unchanged
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.2359 to 2.1661 (close)  - Now at 2.2166 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 268.83 -1.27% (down for the last 5 days)
  • Oil: 77.24 -2.78% (down 5 of the last 6)
  • COPPER: 327.55 -1.75% (currently trading at 327.10 down 4 of the last 6 - BEARISH for growth expectations
  • GOLD: 1,196 -0.01% (trading down for 3 days, but trading at 1202 in early trading)

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.2885 -1.77% - (trading down every day this week)
  • DOLLAR: 82.290 +1.85%) - (trading up every day this week)

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

  • ASIA - Asian markets closed broadly lower with China down 1.23% closing at its lowest level in two-and-a-half weeks.  Japan's Nikkei fell 0.86% to its lowest level in 13 months; concerns about a slowdown in the global economy which pushed the dollar to its weakest in 15 years against the yen. 
  • EUROPE - Major indices are trading mixed earnings and bargain hunting is diverting attention from MACRO concerns.
  • EASTERN EUROPE - Trading mixed to lower - Russia down for the third day; Estonia up 1.58%.
  • LATIN AMERICA - Closed lower with Argentina, Brazil and Chili all down more that 2%.
  • MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA - Mostly lower with Saudi Arabia down big for the second day 1.21% 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER


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