Lets talk on the U.S. economy.
We have a litany of hyper high frequency economic indicators that we track on a Day over Day and Week over Week basis. You can see that in my daily Rise & Grind note that you can sign up for.
The real takeaway for us however is that we continue to see mobility gallop higher. When you look at the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index (MEI) as a proxy was up 727 basis points to be -30.2% YoY. That was through the weekend of 9/5.
That is dragging measures of sentiment up higher with it. It is unclear how long these measures can continue to move higher. We have actually seen an adverse inflection in our Jobs Indicators as well.
One of the ways we have been tracking Jobless claims (particularly continuing and initial claims) is through the lenses of Year over Year nominal change in a non-seasonally adjusted time series.
You can get a lot of funky cross-currents with seasonally adjusted data now, so when you look at it with the YoY nominal change basis we were up 39K on a WoW basis to up 697k YoY through 9/4.
When you look at total unemployment insurance claims on a non-seasonally adjusted basis they were up 380k WoW to 29.6 million through 8/21.
Jobs are starting to move in the wrong direction little by little.
Commerce is also stalling out a bit after stating to follow the trend in mobility but this is the 1st week really since July that our levels of commerce showing mixed signals. You can look at Purchase App Data slowing almost 300 basis points to 25% through 9/4.
As I said in my Rise and Grind note:
All told, the US economy is currently experiencing two very powerful cross-currents: 1) “COVID fatigue” as less-affected populations push towards increasing degrees of normalcy in their behavior; and 2) a trio of negative impulses with respect to fiscal policy, monetary policy, and credit growth. We remain of the view that the latter influence will win out and cause GROWTH to slow later this month and into/through year-end. If that Phase 3 = Quad 3 view changes, I’ll be the first one to let you know.