We're biased short side on GPS, and conviction on that has been rising as of late. The old bull case tune is being played:
- Athleta should get a LULU like multiple
- Old Navy is like an off price retailer and after the 2019 blip it will return to being a growth driver
- Gap brand will be fixed/stable with this restructuring
- The company might monetize some smaller parts of the business
- On solid recovery numbers the stock is really cheap.
We've heard it before, maybe there is some truth to it, maybe there isn't. The Tail outlook has a lot of uncertainty, we'll dive in and give our 2 cents.
On the Trend set-up, we still see several risks around credit card exposure, the apparel promotional environment, and the general health of the US consumer. We’ll quantify each risk and will assess puts and takes as it relates to what’s in the stock.
On Wednesday, September 16th at 10am EDT we'll take a look at GPS across durations and assess the potential risk to NTM EPS and where we think recovery earnings will end up and what a fair price for the stock is in that context.
Topics to include:
- Apparel import trends by category/region
- Risk of online dilution to long term margins
- Store rationalization opportunity, as well as potential cotenancy/center risk
- An assessment of Athleta's underlying value
- P&L exposure to the credit card portfolio and potential timing of the impact
- And more
Call Details:
Date/Time: Wednesday, September 16th at 10am EDT Add to Calendar CLICK HERE
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Confirmation Number: 13709563
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