Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro analyst Christian Drake.
As we’ve highlighted, duration of unemployment greater than 15 weeks continues to step function higher and the ranks of those unemployed for >26 weeks continues to build …. With the sum of the two now north of 8M and set to breach the GFC peak in the coming month(s). Obviously, it’s increasingly difficult to characterize that unemployed cohort as “temporary” and the flow through implications to the consumption economy increase as those numbers progressively matriculate past unemployment benefit eligibility timelines.
In short, the domestic labor market remains the poster child for the still yawning divergence between select fundamental conditions and asset market prices.