Below is our world-renowned Demographer Neil Howe's latest weekly podcast. Neil discusses newsworthy market events that will prove the most timely, topical and consequential in the week ahead.
He talks through the news looming largest on his radar screen to keep your investing laser focused and confident. This free webcast compliments his in-depth research product Demography Unplugged.
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IN THIS LATEST ISSUE OF MY WEEKLY PODCAST...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the latest trends in Covid-19. In the US, we are starting to see a very gradual decline in deaths following a more significant month-long decline in cases. Weather is clearly a factor in the dropping infections. An outbreak abroad underlies several themes we have often spotlighted. On Aug 8, in a South Korean Starbucks, an infected person sat under an air conditioner and infected 66 people, all of whom weren't wearing masks. No one wearing a mask was infected. The incident points to the importance of (a) superspreaders, (b) aerosols, and (c) the efficacy of mask wearing.
In the US, economic indicators remain mixed. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell from 24.1 in July to 17.2 in August. This is the index's lowest reading in the last three months. Markit PMI flashes showed rises in both manufacturing (53.6) and services (54.8) for August. Though flash data typically reflect trends in the beginning of the month, and I suspect these numbers will fall with the final readings.
Upset election in Canada's Conservative Party. Erin O'Toole won an unexpected victory against party insider Peter MacKay in the Conservative Party's leadership race. O'Toole is a blue-collar veteran from Ontario. He ran a populist campaign attacking cancel culture and vowing to take back Ottawa from the radical left. At the same time, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau--0'Toole's adversary in any upcoming eleciton--is taking heat from an investigation into a possible ethics violation.
Israel and UAE establish formal relations. This is only the third Arab state (and only Gulf state) to form diplomatic relations with Israel. Other countries like Oman and Sudan are expected to follow the UAE's lead and form official ties with the government. The news was well received in Israel's financial sector, with the prospect of more open relations with Dubai.
Biden still in the lead. The former VP ended the DNC with a speech that focused on kindness, decency, and empathy. He also attacked Trump for his C19 response and the devastation to small businesses. This week the RNC kicked off with the GOP showcasing a diverse list of speakers from Nikki Haley to Senator Tim Scott. The speakers warned of the dangers of a Democratic president and took a noticeably darker tone than speakers at the DNC.
A new study predicts that millions of Boomers and Xers will struggle to sell their homes. I take listeners through the author's arguments and point out the paper's strengths and weakness. I do agree that the YoY growth rate in housing units over the next two decades will be lower than anything we have seen historically. But I do not agree that the slow demand growth will be entirely borne by single-family exurban and rural homes.
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.
