Below is a complimentary research note from our Financials analyst Josh Steiner. We are pleased to announce that we recently launched Financials Sector Pro, Josh's new research product. Click HERE to learn more. |
HEDGEYE FINANCIALS WEEKLY LABOR MARKET READING
First, some big picture color from Hedgeye's U.S. Macro and Housing Analyst Christian Drake:
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Initial unemployment insurance claims (SA), filed in the week ending August 21st, were 1.01M, down -8.9% w/w.
Cumulative initial claims have now hit 58.4 million, although this includes a fair amount of duplicate filings and over-counting on both the state and PUA levels.
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) claims filed in the week ending August 21st were 608K, up +16% w/w. Recall, PUAs are part of the CARES Act and cover workers ineligible for traditional state UI assistance, including independent contractors, self-employed individuals, and others as detailed in the CARES Act.
Given the unprecedented speed with which initial claims have manifested, our view remains that the best way to contextualize the magnitude of the labor market crisis is to look at continued claims.
Continued unemployment insurance claims (SA), the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending August 14th, 2020, were 14.5 million, down -1.5% w/w.
Continued claims of 14.5 million are currently ~2.2x the previous high-water mark of ~6.6 million set during the financial crisis.