MACAU JULY DETAIL

Including slots, the market grew 70%, slightly higher than the 67% we reported yesterday, which was due to stronger slot revenue and Fx rounding in the data we received. 

VIP hold percentage was very high in July, which helped drive VIP revenue up 87% YoY.  VIP turnover (Rolling Chip) increased “only” 55% while Mass revenue climbed 39%, in-line with the growth rate this year.  Of course, the comp was more difficult than in the prior months but was still easy on an absolute basis.  Mass revenue fell 5% last year and VIP turnover increased 9%, contributing to an overall table revenue increase of 3% in July of 2009.  Slots set a monthly record of HK$701 million in July 2010.

We discussed market share in our note yesterday and the shifts were confirmed today.  WYNN and LVS lost a lot of share, 280bps and 260bps, respectively, from June.  The good news is that the decline was not in Mass where both companies increased share sequentially:  LVS to a normal 26.7% and WYNN to a recent high of 11.0%.  Rather, both lost share in VIP turnover and VIP revenue - hold % played a big role.  Both LVS and WYNN have held very well, above the market, but their hold percentages fell sequentially while the market played luckier in July than June.  On a YoY basis, WYNN table revenue increased 74%, slightly higher than the market while LVS grew 51%.  On the Mass side, WYNN and LVS grew 44% and 27%, respectively, versus the market at 39%.  WYNN obviously benefited from the April opening of Encore.

In terms of market share, SJM, MPEL, and Galaxy were the big winners.  MPEL was probably the standout relative to expectations.  Total table market share went up 150bps sequentially and Mass revenue increased 91% YoY.  MGM’s table revenue actually declined 5% YoY, due to lower hold, and total table market share slipped 50bps sequentially.

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