Here is a look at MSSR guidance going into earnings today.
Comparable-store sales
- MSSR needs to post a -6.2% comparable restaurant sales number or better in order to maintain or improve two-year average top line trends
- Per Factset, the Street is expecting a comparable restaurant sales number of -3.5%, which would imply a 135 bps sequential improvement in two-year top line trends. In fact, with the exception of one estimate of -5%, all of the estimates comprising the Factset estimate are -3%. A -3% comparable-store sales number would imply a sequential improvement of 160 bps in two-year average top line trends
Guidance
- Completing 15-20 audio-visual upgrades during 2Q
- Opening a third Houston, Texas location this summer (three total openings this summer)
- Revenue for the year between $355 and $365 million
- Fully diluted 2010 earnings per share are expected to be between $0.40 and $0.45
- Depreciation and amortization for 2010 is expected to be approximately $16 million
- G&A is expected to be between $20 and $21 million for 2010
- Annualized effective tax rate between 10% and 15%
- Capex for 2010 between $15 and $16 million
- Beef prices for the company will be 5% to 10% higher this year versus last year
Notable remarks from the most recent earnings call
- “We believe that driving more traffic through deliberately managing our check average down, driving higher guest satisfaction, and broadening our guest base, will result in higher sales levels on a long-term basis”
- “Our early weak sales trends on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesdays are also starting to rebound, which suggests that the business guest base is beginning to strengthen as well”
- Promotions are responsible for the recent drop in pricing and check
- Rolling out new menu platform – this had added more value, flexibility, and consumer satisfaction
- April sales trends were better than March
Howard Penney
Managing Director