Here is a look at MRT guidance going into earnings today.
Comparable-store sales
- MRT needs to post a 5.5% increase in comparable restaurant sales in order to maintain two-year trends
- Per Factset, the Street is expecting a comparable restaurant sales number of +5%, which would imply a 30 bps sequential deceleration in two-year top line trends
- The five estimates that constitute the Factset estimate are: +3%, +5%, +5%, +6%, and +6%. Excluding the 3% estimate, it seems that the Street is anticipating a leveling of two-year average trends
- Next fiscal year EPS estimates have been largely static over the past three months, having been raised 48% in the past six months
Guidance
- Seeing a gradual increase in business travel – Monday-Thursday business
- Lodging industry improvement is having a positive impact on MRT’s business
- The Company is contracted for approximately 20% of 2010 beef needs. It is the preference of the Company to forward contract meat purchases.
- While prices have been ticking up, MRT has “pricing flexibility to offset these costs”
- Anticipating ~3% beef inflation for FY10
- 2Q revenues are expected to range between 70 and $72 million
- 2Q comparable restaurant sales increase between 4 and 6%
- 2Q diluted net income per share from continuing operations is expected to be between $0.02 and $0.04
- FY10 revenues are expected to range between 293 and $298 million
- FY10 comparable restaurant sales increase between 3 and 5%
- FY10 diluted net income per share from continuing operations is expected to be between $0.29 and $0.34
- Effective tax rate not in excess of 26%
Howard Penney
Managing Director
