July Macau market share was subpar which could give legs to the bear call that Encore hasn’t been additive enough.
Encore had a high ROI out of the box in Q2 but that won’t change the bear view that Encore isn’t incremental. We think this negative thesis will actually gain momentum as the July market share numbers are digested. As we reported today, we think Wynn’s July Table GGR Macau market share fell to 14.6%, down from May and June (both post Encore opening) of 15.6% and 17.2%, respectively. Obviously, hold percentage is volatile – May and especially June were high – and July was probably low at the Wynn Macau properties.
At least for the short term – a lifetime for Macau stocks – this negative Encore narrative may dominate the discussion. After a nice recovery, the stock could be under pressure. We reserve the right to get positive again down the road at lower levels.