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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 43 points or 2.3% (1,076) downside and 1.6% (1,119) upside.  Equity futures are trading below fair value in reaction to some weakness across Asian and European markets following slightly disappointing economic data out of Japan and Germany. Today's highlight will be Q2 Advanced GDP where a pronounced declaration in growth will reawaken deflationary concerns.

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +152 (+1238) - Breadth positive in a down tape
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1165 (+16.03%) - Volume up nicely on a down day.
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Two sectors up XLF and XLE - Safety is not so safe XLU and XLP bottom two sectors.
  • MARKET LEADING STOCKS: Citrix Sys +19.73%, Ameriprise Fin +12.28% and LSI Corp -13.92%, Akami -12.90%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • VIX 24.13 (-0.49%) - The VIX is broken on TRADE.
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO - 1.74 down from 1.99 (low on 07/15/10 of 0.87)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 31.5519 to 31.5521
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .15% to .14%
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.3996 to 2.3922

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 270.20 1.50%
  • Oil: 77.77 1.8% (down for 3 days)
  • COPPER: 325.80 (1.4%) – looking to be up 8 of the last 9 days - trading above its TRADE line - BULLISH for growth expectations
  • GOLD: 1,164 (0.32%) - Gold has decisively broken the Hedgeye intermediate term TREND line of support (1197)

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3080 (0.64%)  - Up 5 of the last 6 days - trading above the TRADE line
  • DOLLAR: 81.636 (-0.66%) - BEARISH formation 

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

  • ASIA - Most markets followed Wall Street down.  Profit-taking finally set in; China declined 0.4% (-19.5% YTD) and Japan down-1.6% (-9.6% YTD). 
  • EUROPE - Major indices are lower in quiet trade as investors wait for US GDP numbers later in the session for clues as to near term direction.  Greece and Spain leading the way down. 
  • In Europe, earnings this morning have by-and-large beaten estimates. 
  • EASTERN EUROPE declining - Russia down 1.3% and Turkey down 1.6%.
  • LATIN AMERICA - Argentina posting a positive divergence up 1.3%.
  • MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA - Mixed with Egypt up 1.45%. 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER