THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 43 points or 2.3% (1,076) downside and 1.6% (1,119) upside.  Equity futures are trading below fair value in reaction to some weakness across Asian and European markets following slightly disappointing economic data out of Japan and Germany. Today's highlight will be Q2 Advanced GDP where a pronounced declaration in growth will reawaken deflationary concerns.

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +152 (+1238) - Breadth positive in a down tape
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1165 (+16.03%) - Volume up nicely on a down day.
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Two sectors up XLF and XLE - Safety is not so safe XLU and XLP bottom two sectors.
  • MARKET LEADING STOCKS: Citrix Sys +19.73%, Ameriprise Fin +12.28% and LSI Corp -13.92%, Akami -12.90%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • VIX 24.13 (-0.49%) - The VIX is broken on TRADE.
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO - 1.74 down from 1.99 (low on 07/15/10 of 0.87)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 31.5519 to 31.5521
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .15% to .14%
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.3996 to 2.3922

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 270.20 1.50%
  • Oil: 77.77 1.8% (down for 3 days)
  • COPPER: 325.80 (1.4%) – looking to be up 8 of the last 9 days - trading above its TRADE line - BULLISH for growth expectations
  • GOLD: 1,164 (0.32%) - Gold has decisively broken the Hedgeye intermediate term TREND line of support (1197)

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3080 (0.64%)  - Up 5 of the last 6 days - trading above the TRADE line
  • DOLLAR: 81.636 (-0.66%) - BEARISH formation 

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

  • ASIA - Most markets followed Wall Street down.  Profit-taking finally set in; China declined 0.4% (-19.5% YTD) and Japan down-1.6% (-9.6% YTD). 
  • EUROPE - Major indices are lower in quiet trade as investors wait for US GDP numbers later in the session for clues as to near term direction.  Greece and Spain leading the way down. 
  • In Europe, earnings this morning have by-and-large beaten estimates. 
  • EASTERN EUROPE declining - Russia down 1.3% and Turkey down 1.6%.
  • LATIN AMERICA - Argentina posting a positive divergence up 1.3%.
  • MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA - Mixed with Egypt up 1.45%. 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more