Below is our world-renowned Demographer Neil Howe's latest weekly podcast. Neil discusses newsworthy market events that will prove the most timely, topical and consequential in the week ahead.
He talks through the news looming largest on his radar screen to keep your investing laser focused and confident. This free webcast compliments his in-depth research product Demography Unplugged.
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IN THIS LATEST ISSUE OF MY WEEKLY PODCAST...
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the possibility of future inflation. There are already multiple warnings signs that inflation is coming. The US dollar continues to fall as industrial metals and agricultural prices rise. Gold is up 18% since early May. And since mid-May, M2 is up YoY 23%. We've never seen such rapid YoY growth in the money supply since we have data (that is, going back nearly to the Civil War). One possible exception came in 1944, at the peak of global war. IMO, if C19 gets milder and a generous stimulus passes, get ready for rising inflation. Granted, these are big if's.
Economic indicators remain mixed. The ISM Manf PMI came in at 54.2 for July, showing substantial growth. The Markit Services PMI came in at 49.6 for July, marking six straight months of contraction. Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell from 78.1 in June to 72.5 in July. And US GDP QoQ came in at -9.5% for Q2. That was significantly better than Europe's GDP readings in Q1, though the Eurozone is currently growing faster than the US.
Trump targets TikTok. Last Friday, President Trump announced TikTok (owned by the Chinese company ByteDance) would be banned in the US over national security concerns. By Sunday, Microsoft announced it was in talks to but the US part of the company. Trump has given the two companies until September 15 to make a deal.
Apple increases production in India. Foxconn, who produces Apple's products, has moved production of the IPhone 11 out of China and into India. This is the first time an Apple flagship product will be made outside of China. Apple is trying to diversify its production in advance of further deterioration in US relations with China.
Libyan civil war reaches a decisive moment. The Turkish backed Tripoli government is placing troops around the city of Sirte. Russian mercenaries, supporting the eastern government of General Haftar, currently hold the city and are constructing defenses. Egypt has declared that if Sirte falls to Tripoli, they will invade Libya to repel Turkish influence. Is war looming between Turkey and Egypt?
Neither party may accept the results of the 2020 election. As the 2020 election looms, Trump has repeated goaded liberals by refusing to say whether he will "accept" the results of the fall election. But a new report from the Transition Integrity Project says that the left may similarly reject the election results if Trump wins. With mail-in voting, results could take weeks to determine, and there is a significant chance that whoever looses will claim foul play. The only earlier parallel, suggests the report, may be the brokered election of 1876--after which the Democrats agreed to allow the Republican Rutherford B. Hayes to assume office only in return for putting an end to Reconstruction.
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.