THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 34 points or 2.4% (1,088) downside and 0.6% (1,122) upside.  Equity futures are trading above fair value in the wake of Monday's strong performance which followed a surprise jump in New Home Sales and another slew of positive earnings.  Today highlights sees May Case-Shiller Home Price Index and July Consumer Confidence.

  • Advance/Decline Line: +1875 (+38)
  • Volume: NYSE 1018 (-11.48%) - below LTM average
  • Sector Performance: Every sector positive (the RECOVERY trade outperforming the S&P 500)
  • Market Leading Stocks: Biogen +8.2%, Genzyme +7.7% and Devry -6.4%, FMC Tech -3.0%

Equity Sentiment:

  • VIX 22.73 (-3.2%) - The VIX is broken on TRADE - BULLISH for stocks
  • SPX Put/Call ratio - 1.73 (low on 07/15/10 of 0.87)
  • Consumer sentiment declining

Credit/Economic Market Look:

  • TED Spread - 33.302 to 33.029
  •  3-Month T-Bill Yield .14%
  • Yield Curve 2.407 to 2.406

Commodity/Growth Expectation:

  • CRB: 266.51 +0.02%
  • Oil: 78.98 unchanged
  • Copper: 321.5 (+1.2%) – trading above its TRADE line - BULLISH for growth expectations
  • Gold: 1,186 (-0.3%)

Currencies:

  • EURO: 1.30 (+0.6%)  - trading above the TRADE line
  • DOLLAR: 82.08 (-0.5%) - BEARISH formation

Overseas Markets:

  • ASIA - Major indices closed mixed despite a strong early start. China closed lower on fears about its banking sector.
  • EUROPE - Major indices were higher following Wall St's strong performance overnight - PIIGS outperforming 
  • Euribor moved higher overnight to 0.893% from 0.889% yesterday - (Bearish)
  • LATIN AMERICA - Major indices are higher
  • MIDDLE EAST - Mostly higher with the UAE trading down 0.19% 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER