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New research suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic will do lasting damage to civic trust. Two studies focusing on the effects of previous pandemics and recessions suggest that consumers may be reluctant to increase their spending over the long term, while young adults may emerge less trustful of government. (The Washington Post) |
NH: I want to focus on the second study discussed here, which comes from a team of researchers led by Cevat Giray Aksoy of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The researchers used the results from Gallup World Polls to track public opinion since 2006. And they used the EM-DAT International Disasters Database to track the occurrence of worldwide epidemics since 1970.
The study found that those who experienced epidemics in young adulthood (ages 18 to 25) display a lower level of confidence in political leadership and institutions that endures for at least two decades. They are 5 to 7 percentage points less likely than the general population to have confidence in the honesty of elections, in the national government, and to approve of the political leader.
They are also less likely to have confidence in the public health system and in the safety of vaccinations. The effects are stronger among the less educated, urban residents, and women.
The researchers established that the decreased confidence is unique to political leaders. There is no relationship between epidemics and trust in other institutions like the military, banks, or the media. The effects are also unique to epidemics and not non-communicable diseases--most likely because the impact of an epidemic is largely dictated by how quickly (or not quickly) the government takes action.
In their analysis, “weak” governments (i.e. those with limited unity, limited legislative strength, and limited popular support) fared worse than strong governments. They saw steeper and more persistent declines in trust, which the authors warn only further undermines future governments’ ability to respond to future pandemics because their citizens have given up.
IMO, the researchers' conclusions go a bit further than their data allow. That's because they miss the generational dimension. How young people react to government failure depends critically on young people feel about government in the first place. If they expect little from public leaders, poor performance is likely to reinforce their initial attitudes. If they expect a lot from public leaders, it's likely to persuade them to do everything they can to change leaders.
Think about how youth in 1932 (in this case, the G.I. Generation) responded to the perceived leadership failure of President Herbert Hoover. Then think about how youth in 1980 (in this case late-wave Boomer and early wave Xers) responded to the leadership failure of President Jimmy Carter. Two youth different generations, and two very different responses.
In the case of COVID-19, today's young adults are consistently most likely to tell pollsters that they want a strong government response. The shambolic response of the White House and state governors to the pandemic doesn’t seem to have pushed them towards wanting less.
A weak response may undermine trust in the current government, but what it seems to be doing for Millennials is reinforcing their desire to vote in the active government they want but don’t have.
Will it last? We don’t know yet. But they’re not acting like a generation that has given up on government.
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.
