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Relatively cheap but not that exciting. We see a small Q2 miss relative to consensus.

MPEL may report a small Q2 miss, driven by low hold at City Of Dreams.  We estimate that MPEL will report $567MM of revenue and $84MM of EBITDA, 1% above but 6% below the street consensus, respectively.  MPEL has been quite aggressive with junket commissions and giveaways which probably explains why we are higher on revs but lower on EBITDA, along with the low hold at CoD.  We’re about 2% below consensus EBITDA for the year but in-line with 2011 estimates.  MPEL is trading at 10.3x 2010 and 8.7x 2011.  Not exactly rich, but with all the supply coming online next door to them in 2011 & 2012, there remains a lot of uncertainty.

2Q2010 Detail:

We estimate that CoD will report $314MM of revenues and a disappointing $50MM of EBITDA as their good luck from last quarter did a 180 degree turn this quarter.

  • $11.8BN of Rolling Chip, with 15% coming from direct play, at an estimate hold of 2.3%, producing gross VIP win of $274MM
  • Mass win of $106MM and slot win of $29MM
  • Consensus is $70MM in EBITDA

Unlike its sister property, Altira had good luck for a change this quarter.  This will be the first quarter since 1Q08 where the property held over 3%.  As a result, we estimate that Altira will report $227MM of revenues and $40MM of EBITDA.

  • $9.45BN of RC volume which held roughly 3.2%, producing gross VIP win of $300MM
  • Mass win of $11MM
  • Consensus is $21 MM