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WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS - NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE

Last week, 3 of the 8 risk measures registered positive readings on a week-over-week basis, while the remaining five were neutral.

 

Our risk monitor looks at the following metrics weekly:

1. CDS for all available US Financials (29 companies).

2. High Yield

3. Leveraged Loans

4. TED Spread

5. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index

6. Greek Bond Spreads

7. Markit MCDX

8. AAII Bulls/Bears Sentiment Survey

 

1. Financials CDS Monitor – Swaps were mixed this week.  Twelve of the 30 CDS readings contracted, while 17 widened.  Conclusion: Neutral.

Contracted the most vs last week: MBI, MS, AGO

Widened the most vs last week: AON, ALL, TRV

Contracted the most vs last month: MBI, XL, AXP

Widened the most vs last month: AON, ALL, TRV

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS - NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE - cds

 

2. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates fell 21 bps last week. Rates closed the week at 8.74% down from 8.95% the week prior. Conclusion: Positive.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS - NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE - high yield

 

3. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor - Leveraged loans rose by 10 points last week, closing at 1466 versus 1456 the week prior. Conclusion: Positive.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS - NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE - leveraged loans

 

4. TED Spread Monitor - The TED Spread is a great canary. Last week it remained flat, closing at 38 bps. Conclusion: Neutral.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS - NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE - ted spread

 

5. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – The  JOC smoothed commodity price index is a useful leading indicator.  A sharp sell-off in this index starting in July ’08 heralded further declines in the stock market.  This week, the index fell slightly, closing on Thursday at 7.19, down just over 1 point versus last week’s close at 8.59.  Pricing data was not available for Friday. Conclusion: Neutral. 

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS - NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE - joc cpi

 

6. Greek Bond Yields Monitor – Greek bonds yields and CDS show that concerns over debt have not waned.  Last week yields declined very slightly, ending the week at 1025 bps versus 1033 bps the prior week. Conclusion: Neutral.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS - NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE - greek bond

 

7. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps.  We believe this index will be a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments.  Each index is a basket of 50 bonds, both revenue and GO, and the chart displayed is the average of four indices.  A volatile week ended up largely flat, as spreads closed at 221 versus 228 a week ago.  Conclusion: Netural.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS - NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE - markit mcdx

 

8. AAII Bulls/Bears Monitor - The Bulls/Bears survey ripped back to the bullish side last week. Bulls rose  by 18.5% to 39.4% while Bears fell 19.3% to 37.8%, pushing the spread to 2% bullish, versus 36% bearish the prior week.  Conclusion: Positive.

 

One caveat is that our interpretation of the AAII Bulls/Bears survey is that a more bearish reading is bearish. Most market observers would use this survey as a contrarian indicator, which we wouldn't disagree with from a practitioner standpoint. However, for the purposes of this risk monitor, we treat an increase in bearish sentiment as a negative.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS - NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE - bulls bears

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur


THE M3: ESUN SUIT DISMISSED; GGR 2Q DETAIL; MELCOLOT; PHILIPPINES; CHINA TRANSACTION TAX

The Macau Metro Monitor, July 19th, 2010


COURT BLOCKS eSUN'S MACAU CLAIM WSJ, macaubusiness.com

High Court Judge A.T. Reyes ruled that East Asia Satellite Television (Holdings) Ltd.'s $2.39 bililion lawsuit against New Cotai LL-- accusing New Cotai of deliberating delaying the development of their Macao Studio City project in order to force a renegotiation of the terms of their JV--was "untenable" under Macau and HK laws.  He allowed a separate claim for $88.6 million against Oaktree and Silver Point for “inducing breach” of an agreement to proceed.  East Asia is a joint venture company through which eSun Holdings Limited and CapitaLand Limited have invested in Macao Studio City.  New Cotai, owned by Silver Point, Oaktree and former Las Vegas Sands Corp. executive David Friedman, became an investor in Macao Studio City in December 2006.

 

David Friedman, CEO of New Cotai, said in a statement: "We are pleased that the High Court dismissed so many of East Asia's claims at this early stage of the proceedings... New Cotai remains well positioned to complete Macao Studio City once the impediments to doing so, including the litigation initiated by East Asia, are resolved."

 

The court ruling reiterated that the Macau government will reclaim the 6 million sq ft project site if plans don't proceed in the "near future."


CASINO'S GROSS REVENUES FROM BACCARAT NEARLY DOUBLES IN 2ND QUARTER MacauNews, Macau Daily News

According to the DICJ, VIP baccarat increased 98.7% YoY to MOP 32.368 BN in 2Q.  VIP baccarat represented 72.1% of the total GGR, MOP 44.902 BN, in 2Q.  VIP+Mass revenues accounted for 90.6% of the total GGR in 2Q (last year, their share was 87.1%).  Slot revenues rose 32.3% YoY to MOP 2.028 BN in 2Q.

 

The traditional Chinese game of dice known as Cussec or Big & Small reached MOP 856 MN in 2Q ( 34.2% YoY). Blackjack accounted for MOP 541 MN (25.3% YoY growth), stud poker for MOP 266 MN (16% YoY growth), and roulette for MOP 161 MN (28.8% YoY growth).  In other betting arenas--greyhound and horse races, lotteries, and soccer and basketball bets--, gross receipts totaled MOP 317 MN (50.2% YoY growth).

 

For 2Q, the number of gaming tables increased to 4,828 (up 17 QoQ) and the number of slot machines increased 156 units QoQ to 14,659.  According to Macau Daily News, industry experts believe GGR of MOP 130-140 MN for 2010 is an "acceptable level".


CHINA WELFARE LOTTERY DEAL FOR MELCOLOT AND INTRALOT Inside Asian Gaming, Yogonet.com

MelcoLot Ltd has reached a deal to supply INTRALOT's LOTOS Horizon hardware and software to the China Welfare Lottery operation in the city of Chongqing on the Chinese mainland.  MelcoLot is part of the HK-listed Melco Group, under Lawrence Ho.  The contract is for five years with a five-year renewal option by mutual consent.

 

PHILIPPINES MAY PRIVATIZE CASINO INDUSTRY Yogonet.com

President Benigno Aquino is considering privatizing the 41-casino chain of PAGCOR.  He stressed that the government will need to determine any irregularities within PAGCOR and come up with steps to remedy them.  "If at some point in time we can do away with having the government be the operator and the regulator, that will be a good direction," said Aquino.

 

TRANSACTION TAX MAY COOL CHINA HOUSING: PBOC ADVISER Reuters

Xia Bin, one of three academic advisers on the PBoC monetary policy committee, believes a higher tax on property transaction would do more than a property tax to cool China's housing market.


Don't Mind Expectations

“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don’t matter and those who matter don’t mind.”

-Dr. Seuss

 

I got a lot of feedback early last week that I was being too hard on myself. I don’t think I was. For a few trading days the Thunder Bay Bear was getting beaten up by the bulls. I like to call it for what it is that everyone out there sees. There is no hiding from the real-time score.

 

After Friday’s smack-down close, the US stock market is right back in the fetal position, down -12.7% from its April 23rd cycle-peak and down -32% from its 2007 Levered-Long high. Friday’s earnings out of Google, Bank of America, and General Electric looked nothing like those that we saw from Intel earlier in the week. Across the board, all of these stocks look a lot like the SP500 does from and intermediate term TREND perspective – bearish.

 

Earnings are cool. They are catalysts that everyone stares at and they can get you paid on both the long and short side. Getting stocks and earnings right are two completely different risk management exercises however - the difference is usually explained by expectations.

 

At the heart of our American Austerity theme for Q3 of 2010 are the following forecasts about expectations:

  1. US economic growth expectations for the back half of 2010 are too high.
  2. US Dollar weakness (from debt and deficit spending) is a leading indicator for US stock market weakness.
  3. Consensus about US growth, the US Dollar, and US stocks is not yet Bearish Enough.

As of Friday’s closing price of 1064, the SP500 is broken again across all 3 of our core risk management durations (TRADE, TREND, and TAIL):

  1. Long term TAIL resistance = 1096
  2. Intermediate term TREND line resistance = 1144
  3. Immediate term TRADE resistance = 1078

What’s most interesting about this risk management setup is that last week’s closing highs were right at the long term TAIL line (1096). When considered within the framework of longer term expectations, we don’t think earnings season is going to trump the intermediate term slowdown in US growth. Don’t forget that as you get deeper into US earnings season, the earnings get more consumer discretionary (they report last). And as the US consumer goes…

 

By all measures of consensus expectations, Friday’s Michigan Consumer Confidence reading was a bomb (66.5 vs. 74.5E). For the bears however, it was very much consistent with the continuing intermediate term TREND story line that Americans aren’t as dumb as their government expects them to be.

 

Dumb? Yes, that’s what Professional Politicians in Washington must think Americans are when they expect consumers to run out and lever themselves up with another mortgage loan. Every day that the Krugman Empire fear-mongers the citizenry into believing we’re going to have another “great depression” is another day when Americans might actually adjust their spending in anticipation of one!

 

This week’s macro catalyst calendar isn’t going to make Americans any more confident:

  1. Wednesday – Ben Bernanke will issue his semi-annual report to the Senate Banking Committee and likely downgrade his forecast.
  2. Thursday – Bernanke will repeat the same doom and gloom forecast (that doesn’t match up with his GDP forecast) to the House.
  3. Thursday – Existing US Home Sales for the month of June will continue to rattle the cages of the housing bulls (see our 101 slide presentation).

On Friday, European politicians will be trumpeting the results of a made-up “stress test” that already had a prescribed outcome. That could be a positive catalyst, but maybe more so for Europeans than Americans…

 

You see, the Europeans are doing exactly what American politicians taught them to – make up some healthy “test” results for their banks and hope that the market buys into it. This will continue to provide a bullish intermediate term tailwind for the Euro (bullish intermediate term TREND support = 1.27) and a bearish intermediate term headwind for the US Dollar (bearish intermediate term TREND resistance = 84.74).

 

Having been a Euro bear for the first 6 months of 2010, I don’t mind consensus expectations for “Euro Parity.” The Parity Parrots all came to the risk management party just in time for us to cover our Euro and European stock market short positions and shift to shorting the currency and equity markets with more relative downside – those in the USA.

 

We remain short both the US Dollar (UUP) and SP500 (SPY) in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio. My immediate term support and resistance lines for the SP500 are now 1032 and 1078, respectively.  

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Don't Mind Expectations - bear


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The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 19th of July through the 23rd is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

The Week Ahead - c1

The Week Ahead - c2


HST Q2 PREVIEW

HST should beat and raise guidance. Blah, blah, blah.  What’s your macro forecast?

 

 

We expect Host to report 2Q FFO and EBITDA of $0.26 and $262MM, respectively.  Not surprisingly, we are ahead of the Street for the quarter.  Like everyone else, our estimates for 2010 are ahead of company guidance and we expect HST to take up their guidance range when they report next Wednesday. 

 

Yesterday, we wrote a HOT preview and gave our thoughts on lodging stocks.  Sorry to be repetitive but we are reprinting that paragraph since it applies to HST as well.  After all, why recreate the wheel on a great piece of prose?  Well, maybe not great but hopefully clear enough.

 

Now more than ever, the macro environment will drive revenues and lodging profits, and investors’ views of the future macro environment will drive stock prices.  Current RevPAR trends are strong but the reported quarterly results and weekly RevPAR numbers just give investors a glimpse into the rear view of the mirror.  We find it amusing listening to the sell-side repeatedly asking questions on 2011 trends and beyond.  Face it, there is very limited visibility in this space and hotels only have pricing power when occupancies exceed 70%.  Lodging trends have historically been lagging indicators, since what’s on the books today was booked at some point in the past.  If sentiment changes or things begin to deteriorate, future bookings are impacted, and by the time the numbers show a slowing trend, it would be already too late.  No matter what these companies report, how they trade depends on people’s outlook. The issue today is that investors’ collective view of the future is dimming and comps get much tougher in 2H 2010.

 

Of particular interest for HST will be the cost side of the equation.  Flow through is the reason why investors pay a premium for REITs and real estate owners early in the lodging cycle.  HST’s hefty multiple also implies that investors believe that they can get back to peak margins of 25-26% over the next few years.  After 7 quarters of declining direct expenses, we think that 2Q2010 will mark the first quarter of absolute increases in property level expenses.  2Q2010 should also be the first quarter where we see an increase in CostPAR, as HST laps 4 quarters of declining CostPAR.

 

Detail:

 

Total revenue of $1,105MM; $26MM of which comes from rental income

  • 8.6% increase in RevPAR (1% increase in ADR and 7.5% increase in occupancy).
  • $658MM of room revenues, up 4.7% YoY.
  • F&B up 4% YoY.
  • Other revenues of $85MM, down 2% YoY.

Property level EBITDA of $269MM, with margins up 70bps

  • CostPAR flat YoY, with total room expenses up 3.4%.
  • F&B margins flat YoY.
  • 2% YoY increase in hotel departmental expenses and other property level expenses.  In 2Q09, hotel departmental expenses decreased 17% YoY (1Q09 only decreased 7.4% YoY).

Other stuff:

  • Rent expense: $19MM.
  • Corporate expense: $18MM.
  • D&A: $137MM.
  • Interest expense: $83MM.

CAKE – THESIS HOLDS

Keith’s covering of CAKE this morning was executed at a critical risk management level in his model.  The fundamental case, however, is unchanged.

 

As we described in our post yesterday outlining the SIGMA positions in the restaurant space, CAKE faces increasingly difficult restaurant-level margin comparisons going forward.  The second half of this year will be especially difficult in this respect.  CAKE’s management team, along with several peer management teams, has stated that food costs are going to be a headwind in 2H10.  For CAKE, with higher restaurant margin hurdles to comp down the track, this anticipated cost pressure could prove meaningful.   Also evident in the chart is the degree to which top line trends will be harder to lap as the year unfolds.

 

We also are monitoring the considerable downside risk that exists in the macro-consumer sphere; today’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment release is yet another bearish consumer macro data point.  In light of this, and the SIGMA analysis summarized above, we believe estimates will be moving lower in 2H10. Our EPS estimate for 2010 is currently $1.31 versus the street at $1.36.

 

CAKE – THESIS HOLDS - cake sigma est

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

 

 


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