It’s not what you’re looking at in markets. It’s what you see.
I talked about this critical difference in the Early Look this morning.
And when I look at the VIX I look at it through the lenses of volatility.
The volatility of volatility just won’t go away. All of the central planning, from the Fed to the fiscal and back again, has done nothing but perpetuate volatility.
That is not good for those perceiving this to be the next bull market.
This is a market that is a developing bear in certain parts and an explicit bear in other parts. The most obvious bear markets are the Russell 2000 and Financials from both a sector and index perspective.
The VIX closed yesterday at 32 and the low end of my risk range now has a 30 in front of it. That’s the lowest I can get for now. If that changes, it changes.
The trend is 26, so anything above means the VIX is in a bullish trend. I see a problem developing with the VIX getting back to 38 or 40.
What also happened in conjunction with that is not just the volatility. My market signal is not just about volatility.
It’s price, volume, and volatility!
Look at the volume in this chart (see below).
Yesterday was an up day, which was in sharp contrast to the prior day which was a down day. You get an up volume day on the down day in price and then you had the inverse with a down volume day on the up day in price.
This is a very bearish set up when you look at it through the lenses I look at in markets.