If there is one thing that is next to the realities of negative cash flow, it is the crying shame of jobless claims.
This morning another 1.5 million jobless claims were added, taking the 14 week total to 47.25 million Americans.
That is not going away. And this chart is not a V.
Along with jobless claims, let’s touch on the VIX.
Everybody is a proctologist out there in Macro. They all called the bottom in March and April. They also didn’t manage the risk going into it of course.
But what about the big lower high we saw on June 8th when the VIX was at 24 and 25?
Now it’s at 35! So what is it about their process or lack thereof that caused them to totally miss this? I can see how people could say “nobody say Coronavirus” coming even though for us that wasn’t the case. That was the catalyst but the risks were clearly there.
But now with the reopening of risk? Really?
Everybody knows when the VIX is above 30 that markets become uninvestible, it's especially important when it takes off and accelerates through 30.
So I got the top end of the range here at 40.46 and the low end of the ranges is now 30.08.
This is not a market for new “Robin Hoodie” men and woman. This is not a market for Old Wall men and woman.
This is a market that should have been risk managed on June 8th and if you didn’t do that, then too damn bad. If you’re a new subscriber then welcome, you’re going to learn something today.