OVERVIEW
The post-COVID recovery across medical visits has been uneven. Relative to 2Q20 expectations, the trend in screening colonoscopies has the greatest impact in the long- term expectation for EXAS. Volume has recovered from the lows of April with screening colonoscopy (diagnosis code Z1211) falling over 95% with the embargo of elective procedures. As restrictions were lifted, screening colonoscopy has recovered to ~60% of pre-COVID levels. Cologuard fell to ~40% of pre-COVID and has since recovered to 68%. The average percentage of pre-COVID for 2Q20 is 54% and is in the area code of the change in 2Q20 consensus revenue. Consensus revenue sits at 62%, 73%, and 90% of pre-COVID for 2Q20, 3Q20, and 4Q20, respectively. As COVID-19 trends accelerate nationally, we expect our quarter estimate trends to reset lower, and EXAS to move from a Micro Quad 1 back to a Micro Quad 4.
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